Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[steveegg]

Mornin' all. Don't have coffee, but I do have the current VDM from the Air Force -

580 
URNT12 KNHC 230943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/09:17:40Z
B. 22 deg 11 min N
  086 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2749 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 359 deg 081 kt
G. 265 deg 076 nm
H.         960 mb
I.  10 C/ 3051 m
J.  14 C/ 3044 m
K.  14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA        OB 26
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z
REMNENT INNER EYE 16 NM DIA. 50% COVERAGE. OPEN W SEMICIRCLE.

Haven't done the math yet on this one (still trying to wake up :-)

[NautiNurse]

Odd thing happened yesterday afternoon while doing storm prep on the patio. Had that strange feeling...looked up across the water, and there was a man standing at the water's edge, just STARING at me while I was working.

I figure he is the new neighbor across the way, with his new boat. Don't think he has ever been through a storm, because he had that doe-in-the-headlights look about him.

[NautiNurse]

Coffee is ready here. Ahhhhh...

[sheikdetailfeather]

Good morning! WFTV in Orlando says on Monday expect 60-80 mph wind GUSTS for Osceola, S. Brevard, and Polk. Counties to the north of Orlando can expect 40-50 mph GUSTS. WFTV HAS STREAMING VIDEO DURING HURRICANES WITH TOM TERRY AND IT IS GOOD. HE WILL BE ON EVERY HALF HOUR THEY SAID. WFTV breaks it down by county for everyone too so we know what to expect and when. With that I am going to get some sleep!

[tiredoflaundry]

That guy might be in for a big surprise! I hope he tied his "new boat" down !

We will clear the patio this morning. My sons & husband have it down to a science at this point!

[laz]

Look at the visible floater. When I noticed the first shift to the right, three hours ago, I thought maybe my eyes were tricking me. Now it's obvious she turned from NNE to NE. You can see the shift in direction in the last three frames.

I think Marco Island might be it.

[sheikdetailfeather]

You are good!

[laz]

Check my posts from #445 on. I was going to go to sleep, but something told me to stay up a bit longer, and I noticed the moment she made the turn and took aim.

[SE Mom]

Morning everyone..coffee's perking.

[buickmackane]

I was just looking at the 5 am EDT tracking maps on wunderground.com for both Wilma and Alpha. I am wondering if anyone thinks they might converge on Monday or Tuesday. What a nasty prospect for the entire East Coast if that happens!

[Sam Cree]

Some of the mets were saying that last night.

[NautiNurse]

Per WFOR, you have the highest odds for tornados in your area with this system.

[Caipirabob]

Very quiet here in Boca Raton this morning. Already had my pint of freshly ground Colombian Huila Coffee. Trying not to wake up my favorite Colombian because she was pretty tired last night.

I've already filled the car and there was no one at the pump at 6:00AM. I'm preparing to pull out all the plywood and board up the patio. This is the first time I've done that before, but we're expecting gusts of up to 120 here in West Boca from what I'm reading. That will most likely take out the screen patio. I'm feeling pretty bad for my neighbor. He's a hard worker and just put in a new pool and patio that was finished in March. Perhaps the fence will be enough protection.

So I figure I've got about 3 hours of hard labor and then I'll decide if I'm going to evacuate anyways. I'm hoping we'll see this blow North, rip itself apart and weaken but that's not too likely I suppose.

So anyways, we'll make our call around 3-4PM.

What's everyone else in this neck of the wood doing?

I'll check in when I take a break.

[Sam Cree]

Going to have a nap. Will put up the rest of my shutters in a little while. See you guys off and on. Hoping we will not be out of elec for too long. Some trees already got a pruning by Katrina, if that helps at all.

Was listening to an FPL lady on the radio yesterday, she was saying, "trees can topple and fall on our power lines, which will cause them to fall, which in turn will cause them to fail..." on and on, was driving me crazy. Why she couldn't just say "trees fall on power lines," those 5 words would be enough. OTOH, she did have a charming latin accent.

[laz]

AccuWeather talks about it in an article, saying Wilma and Alpha might merge. When I first saw the headline, my first thought was, "Boy, is Fred gonna be jealous." LOL

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for the update. Please check in when you can, and take care.

[Sam Cree]

I have some friends in Boca. They probably have their shutters up by now, they grew up in Miami, are fairly used to hurricanes.

Best of luck to you.

[steveegg]

Finally got the last 4 eye-fixes from the VDMs plotted. They've been noticing what appears to be an eyewall replacement (outer eyewall between 60 and 70 nm wide, inner one or reminants about 15-20 nm wide).

Position at 1:28 am EDT - 21 49N 86 48W
Position at 3:06 am EDT - 21 56N 86 42W (motion 39 degrees at 6.3 mph)
Position at 4:05 am EDT - 21 58N 86 36W - this fix is not as tight as the others, so I'll toss this one out
Position at 5:17 am EDT - 22 11N 86 31W (motion from the 3:06 fix 34 degrees at 9.5 mph)

Average motion over the last 3:49 - 36 degrees at 8.1 mph. She's coming, and coming quick.

[NautiNurse]

The Katrina tree pruning will absolutely be a benefit. Same happened last year with Frances shearing off a lot of the pecan tree. Much less damage when Jeanne rolled through.

[LBKQ]

Hey. I thought you were going to get some sleep!?