| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 10/19/2005 9:04:23 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
New thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1505673/posts |
Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Did you mean unchanged pressure at 892 mb?
Also, someone posted that the storm was stalled. This says it's moving NE at 10.8.
What time did this run?
Thanks
NHC conference coming up, significant track changes the speculated reason.
I pulled a Franklin :-)
Yes, there are local rumors the storm may miss FL altogether...hoping, hoping...
that's good, I don't do snow anymore,but the better half is up in duluth and I am sure she will get a few flakes..
I meant 892. The motion was based on the difference in eye fixes in the last 2 vortex data messages (3:56 pm EDT and 202 pm EDT).
Ok..so we cross our fingers:) This could be GREAT news!
And...then NN and I spend the weekend eating malted milkballs!
From your mouth to God's Ear.
CNN and MSNBC WILL cover the conference for the broadband-impared. Fox hasn't made it past the bottom-of-the-hour update yet. Haven't heard anything of TWC.
Amen to that....waiting hopefully here in Sarasota
Are you the one spreading that rumor? :-)
Fox will also be covering it, so you don't have to listen to Wolf Blitzed or PMSNBC. TWC will not be carrying the presser.
So far, 302 feet is the farthest I have managed to smack the penguin.
5pm track is out. No significant change.
Either way, signs are good for FL from what I gather. If it goes over mexico at all, you will see a very much weakened storm.
NHC slowing it down, means they think it will miss the brunt of the trough. Late season... tricky, tricky.
As Mitch moved back over the Gulf of Mexico, it regained tropical storm status for the third time. It raced northeastward and pounded Key West with tropical storm force winds and heavy rains on November 4-5. ... Rains of six to eight inches were common in southern Florida and several tornadoes struck the region. At least 7 were injured when a tornado swept from Marathon to Key Largo. A second tornado touched down at Miramar north of Miami. At Fowey Rocks Lighthouse, just southeast of Miami, a wind gust of 73 mph was reported...
Apparently Mitch killed 11,000 people in Central America, which is shocking.
Poor Max Mayfield..he's showing the different models..looks like a toss up..depending..on ..
pppfffttt...
Looks like concentric eyewalls are setting up on the latest sat photos.
...Wilma continues toward the Yucatan as a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from San Felipe to Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Swan Island. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from south of Tulum to Chetumal Mexico...and for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize City. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Tulum to Punta gruesa. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron. All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 17.7 north... longitude 83.7 west or about 285 miles... 460 km... southeast of Cozumel Mexico. Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A turn to the northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in hurricanes of this intensity...and are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370 km. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 892 mb...26.34 inches. Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches...with isolated amounts of 10 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday. If the center of Wilma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula... coastal storm surge flooding of 7-10 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of the center. Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.7 N... 83.7 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 892 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT. Forecaster Franklin
"Hugo in Cancun"
Must have been a different storm. Hugo '89 hit the Lesser Antilles, then Puerto Rico, then it made a beeline for South Carolina.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
