This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
Locked on 10/19/2005 9:04:23 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
New thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1505673/posts |
Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
The Great Lakes are getting a storm too? Sheesh....
Thanks much for the explanation.
Just got word that there is a 4:45 presser scheduled with Max Mayfield of the NHC -- it looks like there will be a "major change" in the forecast track that will be reflected with the 5P update.
I'm sure the news networks will carry it; the Miami stations in the live streams I posted will most assuredly carry it.
If anything, it will "echo" that compression and make a westward swing.
Landfall compression will domino counterclockwise and tighten (and reinforce) the eye as it creeps toward the Yucatan.
Unlike New England, we could use the rain. We're still about 8.5" behind for the year up here.
what no snow this weekend up your way?
Yeah...the storm is stalling and the front may push it west instead of east.
Even if there is no flooding, we are always at risk of wind damage, fallen tree limbs, power outages, etc. which are not necessarily life-threatening but certainly inconvenient.
The problem with Pinellas is that there are only so many ways out of here. The Skyway Bridge will close in any winds... Howard Franklin and Gandy could be closed by rising water... imagine how packed the roads could get very quickly.
Personally, I'm not planning to evacuate, but if you're very uncomfortable, and you have a place to go, it might be a good time to look at the pretty fall leaves with your daughter. Better yet, wait until tomorrow to see if Wilma decides to visit Cancun instead of Florida.
Stay put until you hear from our EOC. They're on top of it and will let you know when/and if you need to consider evacuation.
What evac zone are you in?
Thanks for the ping. Swamped at work so just now reading the thread. This is unbelievable. Hope we don't have to talk about a hurricane 'Alpha'
Thanks, steve!
That is really neat!
Thanks for the heads up!
380 URNT12 KNHC 192017 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 19/19:56:20Z B. 17 deg 36 min N 083 deg 36 min W C. 700 mb 2152 m D. 65 kt E. 122 deg 010 nm F. 285 deg 141 kt G. 201 deg 002 nm H. 892 mb I. 12 C/ 3059 m J. 19 C/ 3051 m K. 15 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. CO5-10 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 18 MAX FL WIND 141 KT S QUAD 19:52:00 Z
Summary -
- Pressure unchanged at 992 mb
- New Max flight-level wind (NE quad still unsampled)
- Concentric eyes at 5 nm and 10 nm wide
- Movement northwest (314 degrees) at roughly 10.8 mph
Evacuation level A
Mexico just got some very bad news in the last few hours. Hopefully, that will reduce the threat of a major, strong 3, 4 or 5, hurricane to SW FL (& myself on the East Coast exiting side of the earlier track.) This one is definitely full of suspense and speculation.
I'm a bit too far south (south suburban Milwaukee). They're talking possible snow showers up north Saturday night (no accumilation, and whatever accumilation there is will be melted by rain the following day).
News is sounding better -- may not need to worry.
I thought you'd like it.
992 mb???? Huh?
Other than that..Florida may be in the clear?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.