Posted on 10/17/2005 7:59:53 AM PDT by Travis McGee
The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005
We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.
The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:
Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE
God I love that commercial.
All they need to do is score it with a little bit of Wagner (Valkyries, or better yet, Tannheuser) and the absurdity will be perfected.
Hey wagglebee,
Did you not follow the link and read the sales pitch and did you not become enamored with the sales pitch and did you not further obey the sales pitch by buying gold? Gold! GOLD!!!
Just asking...
Listen Lurko, why don't you tell me how much an investment of $1000 in gold in 1980 compares to the same investment in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested?
True. I don't happen to own any, but I keep an eye on the Schwab Small Cap fund as an indicator, and it has frequently made new yearly highs over the past few years.
Sheesh, people can be so difficult...
Last I knew he was predicting market top somewhere in the S&P 1300's and no downturn "any time soon" whatever that means. The last two big trends he hit right on the money.
That depends on whether I bought them because I screwed up or whether I bought them "just because..."
I thought he said "earings"...sheesh!
Gee, you're making me reveal just how non-mainstream I am. Don't really need all that much diesel for ten years. I have 75 acres of hardwood timber on this place--so my house is heated with wood. Have 100 gallons of kerosene and know how to trim a wick. Have two fine draft horses and know how to make a two horse hitch to plow when the diesel runs out. My people were Amish. Yes, yes, I know, I'm going to Hell for using this computer. All I can say is the Devil made me do it. LOL
1. The Dow has formed a diamond pattern over the last two years. One of the rarest and most bearish patterns that exist according to the old line technical books.
2. The Hindenberg effect has occurred. I don't know or care what that means but google it and you'll find something on it. It is very bearish. I has to do with the numbers of stocks making highs and lows.
Goldbug Alert!
umm, historically ramping commodities is the first leg of a new bull market. Consumption abates, then prices fall back ushering in the second leg, a relief rally if you will. Technology is the last leg.
Odd...I thought "It's different this time" was the last leg... :-)
"Every time gold goes up it means those little pices of green paper in my wallet have lost value."
Boy, do you have that right, Lurking. Don't know why that's so hard for everyone to understand. Can't eat gold, or paper. The only thing I trust is something I can eat. Only tensy little problem is--anything I can eat, doesn't trust me. One of the hazards of cattle ranching.
BTTT for later.
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