The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! (Market Crash Prediction)

321Gold ^ | Oct 17, 2005 | Enrico Orlandini

[Travis McGee]

The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005

We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.

The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:

Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE

[Toddsterpatriot]

Great charts. Did you have to subscribe to get access to them?

[Travis McGee]

The weather service last week is predicting a milder then average winter this year and if it happens look for Christmas to be a blockbuster, in line with the general trend of this expanding economy.

Here's hoping you're right.

[simon says what]

Great charts. Did you have to subscribe to get access to them?

No, the site is free.

http://www.bigcharts.com

Use the red "interactive charting" button to customize color, size, and technical indicators.

[#1CTYankee]

"Thanks for the reminder of my favorite movie, but I think the name is "Chauncy" Gardner. One of the funniest movies Peter Sellers ever made--"Being There."

One of my favorites as well, Sellers is brilliant in it.

[Eagles Talon IV]

Interest rates are going up 3/4% in the next 3 months and why is that important except in a relative sense? The average nationwide 30 fixed mortgage is at 5.59%. This is almost a half point LOWER then my first mortgage in 1968 which was at 6%. Mortgage rates are based on the 10 year note which is currently trading at a price equal to about 4.5%.

I have been an investor who closely follows the markets and trend for over 30 years and if I had a dime for every 'the sky is falling" prediction from a short seller or an uninformed regurgitator of what I refer to as "pass along news" I would be wealthier then I am today.

The Stock market is up 11% per year on average as far back as you want to check and the market advances 2 days out of every 3 on average. This doesn't mean the the markets won't correct or that the business cycle has been repealed. It simply means the chance of an 8-10 years economic/market downturn is not based on anything but pure speculation. If you have some solid evidence that is not attached to speculation by persons who have an interest in the economy dropping off a cliff I would be happy to look at it.

[Protagoras]

Oh no!! The dreaded diamond pattern!! That along with the return of the dirigibles,,,,,,well,,,all I can say is,,,Oh My!!!!

[Question_Assumptions]

Someone hit a switch over the summer. I got about 6 or 8 interviews and 3 offers all within the same month. And, these were real offers, not 'Amway'. :-)

Oh, I'm talking about real prospects and interviews. Good companies and good salaries, too. I think the Internet bust shook a lot of the dead wood out of the tech industry and companies are starting to fight over the good people again.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Thanks. This is very interesting. I wish it included dividends. I like this chart. Since 1980, Gold vs S&P 500.

I guess with dividends reinvested, stocks look even better.

Or how about Altria (Phillip Morris) vs gold since 1980?

Smoke 'em if you got 'em!!!

[Travis McGee]

I saw "Being There" when it first came out, in a theater in Copenhagen Denmark. A good crowd was present, based on Sellers' star power etc. These are folks who all speak English very well. The film was in English with Danish subtitles.

I was the ONLY person in the theater who laughed even ONCE. The humor just did not translate one iota to the Danish mindset. It was really strange, to be the only person to "get" the humor, out of a hundred intelligent, English-speaking viewers.

I'll never forget how odd that experience was.

[Eagles Talon IV]

The economy is indeed strong. It is amazing that 90% of the people in this nation either cannot or will not look at easily available sources that have the statistics to back up the claim of a strong and growing economy. They turn on one of the alphabet networks, CNN or CNBC, hear the newsreader say in effect, "the economy sucks" and swallow it hook line and sinker.

I am fully convinced the dumbing down of this nation is deliberate. It is far easier to control people who only know and believe what they are told.

[#1CTYankee]

I saw Being There about 20 yrs ago, I found it so funny I made my wife to be watch it on cable one day.
While she enjoyed it she never laughed, it’s probably my sense of humor which is sometimes dark and considered by some strange.

I’m also a fan of Monty Python and South Park among others.

[superloser]

Since 1980

Oh PLEASE, using an extreme top is the only way to make a point?? Must be a losing point then.

Why not plot Gold against the NASDAQ *since 2001* the the stock market hit an extreme top? Care to take that argument?

The only way to plot Gold is to do it after the gold window was closed by Nixon. Before then, it was the same as CASH.

Let's have some intellectual honesty here.

[Travis McGee]

You know, humor is a funny thing...

[groanup]

Bet against 'em then. After all, a fool and his money were lucky to get together.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

I did not say that.

What makes you think I said that???

I never said that!

I double checked and I am certain that I did not say that.

Did anybody see that I said that?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Ferris?

You read poorly. I stated that the author was incorrect in saying that in the PAST 3-4 years, the stock market performed poorly. Other indexes and investment vehicles (incl. REITs) like small and mid-caps performed very well in the PAST 3-4 years.

You need to read more carefully.

[#1CTYankee]

"You know, humor is a funny thing..."

"Humor. It is a difficult concept"

[wagglebee]

Yeah, I know, they weren't soliciting anything, they weren't trying to get me to buy anything. But I got so damn excited, I went and refinanced my house, just so I could buy more gold, so in a few years I can get suckered by some guy selling water because global warming is causing a shortage of water and the gold market is really just an over-speculative bubble.

[stinkerpot65]

Any time you see an article like this, assume they are sellin g gold and move on. These people are worse than used car salesmen.

[Toddsterpatriot]

The only way to plot Gold is to do it after the gold window was closed by Nixon. Before then, it was the same as CASH.

Ummm, the charts I posted were after the gold window was closed. So, you're admitting that someone who bought gold in 1980 underperformed the S&P 500? LOL!

Why not plot Gold against the NASDAQ *since 2001* the the stock market hit an extreme top? Care to take that argument?

Feel free.

How about gold vs Phillip Morris since August 15,1971? And this doesn't even include dividends, which today, at Altria's all time high, were 4.2%. They pay a dividend every year. Since 1971 that's a big chunk of change. Especially reinvested.

Let's have some intellectual honesty here.

Okay. What is gold's earnings and what dividend does it pay?

[Travis McGee]

On the other hand, cable news and glossy magazine permabull stock touts are as pure as the driven snow.