This encapsulates the difference between the administration and it's opponents. In economic terms, the administration discounts the future very heavily. 99% of the remaining important things in W's life will happen in the next 3 1/2 years. After that, he retires to the ranch and gives an occasional award. For movement conservatives, the next 20 years is the relevant time frame.
So the value to W of a win NOW is big, regardless that there were better nominee's available and W regards the damage from a loss NOW as huge. He also realizes that there really isn't much the conservatives can do to him in the next 3 1/2 years. So the downside is slim.
(One way to see the truth of this is to ask yourself, what if O'Conner and Rehnquist had retired well before the 2004 election, when W needed the base's votes? Miers? Don't think so.)
Folks with a 20 year time-frame will value those scenarios differently. But aside from complaining, there's not really much us 20 year-ers can do. Miers will be confirmed. If she's another Thomas, we can all raise a glass and celebrate. If she's a bomb and/or Roberts is a bomb, the party will have a different nominee in 2008 and he/she will say, don't blame me, I didn't nominate her.
What puzzles me is the strangely inappropriate responses of the administration to the opposition. Leveling charges of sexism and elitism against a big chunk of your base is just weird to hear from Republicans. If you are going to jam something down a friends throat, you should try to avoid insulting them while you are doing it.
It is not a big chunk of the base that is attacking Miers. It is the people who make their living off the base, as well as the malcontents who hate the President anyway. Most conservatives were probably disappointed in her selection but trust the President enough to support him and her. I'm disappointed in Clarence Thomas too. He is not as good as Scalia but better than most of the rest.
A win over your own base is always a defeat in the long run. Clinton "won" in NAFTA. But that "win" meant turning the Democratic party into the party of upscale latte liberal manners and mores and ignoring the values and economic interests of blue collar Americans. The result ? The Democratic Party lost the House, the Senate and mayoralty after governorship because without economic populism they had nothing to counter 'values'. The New Democrats who had supported NAFTA were wiped out and the leftists who had opposed it survived.