That vortex data of 0300Z seems to suggest to me, someone with almost no ability in this stuff, that there could be a greatly disorganized storm hitting the coast. Is that consistent with your take? Can this significantly weaken the sustained winds in time if so?
It's doing what most storms do at landfall in the northern gulf, slowly weakening.
The recon found a 15 mile wide area of sustained near 115mph in the NE Quad. This is quite large.
Looks like we are at the beginning of an eyewall replacement as it makes landfall, so it's not going to be as bad as it could have been.
You have to keep in mind that the pressure is still way down there. Many storms with this pressure have winds 135-150mph... It will be interesting to see post storm analysis as to why the pressure was so low without higher winds. It won't weaken much more than it has been... should come in at 115-120.... large swath of big wind.
Surge is still going to be equal to a cat 4 I'm afraid. That could be the big story with this storm, as with Katrina.