It's doing what most storms do at landfall in the northern gulf, slowly weakening.
The recon found a 15 mile wide area of sustained near 115mph in the NE Quad. This is quite large.
Looks like we are at the beginning of an eyewall replacement as it makes landfall, so it's not going to be as bad as it could have been.
You have to keep in mind that the pressure is still way down there. Many storms with this pressure have winds 135-150mph... It will be interesting to see post storm analysis as to why the pressure was so low without higher winds. It won't weaken much more than it has been... should come in at 115-120.... large swath of big wind.
Surge is still going to be equal to a cat 4 I'm afraid. That could be the big story with this storm, as with Katrina.
Thanks for your analysis.
I know that the pressure is a bit anamolous this storm - if you ever get a reading as to why, even if it is a month from now, I would appreciate your dropping me a line with a link or whatever regarding that. I'm still pretty excited (well, trying to split hairs to be optimistic...) about the way this seems to have a chance of some weakening, from the character I'm seeing here. It seems to me that area of 115 could (slight possibility) blow out during the next two hours and leave a bit weaker storm. The ERC might be really working for us here at precisely the right time.
You're certainly right about the storm surge. I'm hoping that won't be enough to destroy the refinery infrastructure in itself...