...Extremely dangerous category four Hurricane Rita continues west-northwestward toward the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain....and from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 26.2 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 350 miles... 560 km... southeast of Galveston Texas and about 310 miles... 495 km...southeast of Cameron Louisiana.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. Any tropical storm force winds in the New Orleans area are expected to be confined to a few squalls associated with quickly moving rainbands.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was 917 mb...27.08 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience coastal flooding.
Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Since Rita is expected to slow down significantly after making landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches are possible over the next several days over eastern Texas and western Louisiana. In addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...26.2 N... 90.3 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 917 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Weakens a little more. Hope that continues to be the trend.
WTNT73 KNHC 230248
SPFAT3
HURRICANE RITA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.4N 93.0W 41 X X X 41 FREEPORT TX 15 9 1 X 25
29.8N 94.2W 19 10 X 1 30 PORT O CONNOR TX 6 8 2 2 18
31.1N 94.7W 4 18 2 1 25 CORPUSCHRISTI TX 1 4 2 3 10
PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 2 3
MOBILE AL X 1 1 4 6 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 2 3
GULFPORT MS 1 2 2 4 9 GULF 28N 89W 8 2 X 1 11
BURAS LA 5 4 2 1 12 GULF 28N 91W 46 X X X 46
NEW ORLEANS LA 5 6 2 2 15 GULF 28N 93W 44 X X X 44
NEW IBERIA LA 15 6 1 1 23 GULF 28N 95W 19 3 1 X 23
PORT ARTHUR TX 17 11 1 X 29 GULF 27N 96W 4 4 2 2 12
GALVESTON TX 20 7 1 1 29 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 2 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM FRI TO 7AM SAT
C FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
D FROM 7PM SAT TO 7PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER KNABB
$$I am back at home, tried to evacuate, ain't happening, all roads out are parking lots, much better to hunker down at home, will report more next am.
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | S ( 170 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 69.9 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 89.4 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | 24.6 ft |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | 10 sec |
| Average Period (APD): | 7.3 sec |
| Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): | SW ( 229 deg true ) |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 28.40 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | +1.07 in ( Rising Rapidly ) |
| Air Temperature (ATMP): | 78.8 °F |
| Water Temperature (WTMP): | 81.3 °F |
| Dew Point (DEWP): | 78.8 °F |
| Heat Index (HEAT): | 83.1 °F |
| Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure | |
| TIME(CDT) | WDIR | WSPD |
|---|---|---|
| 8:50 pm | S ( 173 deg ) | 69.2 kts |
| 8:40 pm | SSE ( 154 deg ) | 71.1 kts |
| 8:30 pm | SE ( 138 deg ) | 75.0 kts |
| 8:20 pm | S ( 169 deg ) | 74.2 kts |
| 8:10 pm | S ( 183 deg ) | 75.8 kts |
| 8:00 pm | S ( 179 deg ) | 75.8 kts |
| Wind Direction (WDIR): | E ( 90 deg true ) |
| Wind Speed (WSPD): | 31.1 kts |
| Wind Gust (GST): | 38.9 kts |
| Wave Height (WVHT): | 23.0 ft |
| Dominant Wave Period (DPD): | 14 sec |
| Average Period (APD): | 8.9 sec |
| Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): | ESE ( 109 deg true ) |
| Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): | 29.70 in |
| Pressure Tendency (PTDY): | +0.01 in ( Steady ) |
| Air Temperature (ATMP): | 83.1 °F |
| Water Temperature (WTMP): | 83.3 °F |
| Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure | |
| TIME(CDT) | WDIR | WSPD |
|---|---|---|
| 8:50 pm | E ( 88 deg ) | 31.3 kts |
| 8:40 pm | E ( 88 deg ) | 33.2 kts |
| 8:30 pm | E ( 89 deg ) | 33.4 kts |
| 8:20 pm | E ( 86 deg ) | 29.9 kts |
| 8:10 pm | E ( 87 deg ) | 29.9 kts |
| 8:00 pm | E ( 88 deg ) | 31.1 kts |
Gosh, I wish I'd seen your 651 before I sprained my eyes on post 649.