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Locked on 09/23/2005 9:43:13 AM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Part VI: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1490045/posts |
Posted on 09/22/2005 5:44:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.
Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.
Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA
Additional Resources:
FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
Storms always go north and northwest when they hit land why don't the authorities send people south and west (except in Florida)?
Uh oh...the secret is out.
Good morning..just getting my first cuppa. 5,000 didn't leave Galveston? That's crazy.
Qualifiers are very important. But, que sera sera! The important thing is to batten down the hatches prepared for the worse wherever one plans to be.
It's not just Skeetobite. All of the wx resources are getting terribly slowed down by all the hurricane curiosity noobs since Katrina. That's why I keep harping about posting links instead of graphics.
I think the error there is a complete dependence on mathematics, where he was looking at the physical.
The High Pressure area that has been restraining Rita is retreating to Florida, and this encourages Rita to fly more Northward. This also is in sync with a model that has been the most accurate for the past 48 hours, which akes this pressure zone and its movement into account.
I would consider the odds much less than one in three, though it is obviously possible as these storm have a mind of their own.
yeah, but it's a lot less than NO. I hope they make it through. Good morning.
Morning. Just about to finish my 2nd cuppa.
I will agree their coverage on the Rita-weather to this point has been outstanding.
FNC has been lurking again. Got their segment on evacuation of state prisoners from coastal units and UTMB right here. They did try a little zinger by asking if county/city inmates were being sent home (a la NO), but of course TDCJ doesn't have any jurisdiction over those.
The mid-level ridge that would keep Rita west of Galveston is still sitting over Texas, and the pace of its eastward movement will make a huge difference when we are talking about a difference of 30 miles in the landfall.
I'm looking at the BAMM/BAMD, LBAR, and A98E models, also from 0600 UTC (2AM EDT).
BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR all show a *direct* hit on Houston.
Models explained below (from Accuweather):
A98E - National Hurricane Center Atlantic 1998 Early Model
BAMM - Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer)
BAMD - Beta and Advection Model (Deep Layer)
LBAR - Limited Area Barotropic Model
GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model
A98E - A statistical track model which looks at past storms which formed in the same place, and mixes this forecast with upper-level forecast model data from the GFS. Storms are classified based on location and movement, then specific meteorological equations are applied.
BAMM/BAMD - A track model which uses an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations that predict the evolution of tropical storms, including taking into account the "beta effect" of the earth's rotation. The BAMD uses an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom (good for big storms), while the BAMM uses a medium vertical average (good for medium storms). There is also a BAMS (shallow) for small storms.
LBAR - A an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms.
GFDL - An advanced 3-dimensional weather forecast model developed specifically for predicting hurricane movement. (resolutions).
I prefer KTRK myself.
I have a tide chart. Don't have a good fix on landfall time or location yet."
--->
NN: Assume that landfall is at 5AM tomorrow morning. How does that mesh with the tide times?
Did you catch the title of that photo? "fatigue"
Tide times vary by location.
Austin stations are showing Rita hitting closer to Beaumont. We were needing the rain in central TX, but looks like that's not gong to happen.
Aw geez - check out these pics of homes after Katrina
http://forms.belointeractive.com/sharedcontent/datafiles/1127422203006_ORIGINAL_HPIM0231.jpg
http://forms.belointeractive.com/sharedcontent/datafiles/1127423321348_ORIGINAL_JENNIFER_TRAILER_034.jpg
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