Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Nita Nupress]

Thoughts and prayers, Texas. And also to those of you supporting us.

Amen. I love this state, and it means a lot to know so many people care.

If I stay on this thread much longer I'm gonna start getting downright sappy. Ugh!

And Dog Gone, while I'm being semi-sappy, have you asked about being able to go to the hospital yet? I'm starting to get worried about you. Being by yourself during all this would not be good. If the phones go down, no one would know it if you got hurt by flying glass or a falling roof.

[Spktyr]

Hunker down and wait. I'm prepared and getting better so. And my Jeep can swim (sort of), so...

[glock rocks]

You and Tom keep yer heads low, and yer kids close. You have our prayers.

[PhilipFreneau]

>>> Weather channel said that the hurricane is the size of Georgia. Moving at a forward speed of 9 mph, that is an aweful long time to withstand F3 force winds. <<<

True, but the intensity on the eastern side of the eye wall increases proportionally with the forward speed. Hurricane Eva of 1982, which had a sustained wind speed of about 100 mph, had a forward speed of over 30 mph when it hit the island of Kauai, causing severe damage. In the case of Rita, with expected winds of 150 mph, or more, it is hard to say which is worse. Either case would be devastating.

[Frank_2001]

Well, he could call himself "Grandmaster J" , that sounds OK;))

[Brad’s Gramma]

Stay safe, friend. Oh please, stay safe...

[Txsleuth]

Uh-oh,...

Well, I am NOT going to tell my daughter....she would just worry...I will do the worrying and pray that her husband has the sense to get them out if the lake starts creeping up....(plus, I will call him on his cell phone.)

[Cecily]

Five! My mother has one that runs her ragged. How can you stand all that hyperactivity and constant yapping? Yes they are cute dogs, but still.

[steveegg]

It looks like it will be at sea for at least 36 more hours. If the eye wall replacement weakens it overnight it will have all day tomorrow and night to rebuild over the warm water of the gulf.

I don't necessarily see an eyewall replacement on the satellite loops (of course, I'm just an untrained observer, but I haven't heard anything about an ERC from the pros lately), but if it happens soon, she'll come right back out of it probably as strong as before.

[sheikdetailfeather]

How about this tagline:

"Texans don't need no schtinkin gubmint!"

[Palladin]

God be with you, eastforker.

[DrewsDad]

ping

[yield 2 the right]

Forecasting how weak or strong a Tropical Storm/Hurricane will be is the hard part...The NHC admits it in so many words....

[steveegg]

Those trees will come apart if the winds top about 80 mph; trust me.

Stay safe.

[Petronski]

I believe I heard that was a misquote. That is was "six hundred thousand dollar homes" being destroyed.

[GummyIII]

Just got this email...thought I'd share with you:

"I wanted to tell you that Kevin (young college boy that I know) is beside himself with anxiety for his mom and family who are stuck in traffic trying to get away from their home near Galveston. He says his house is probably going to take a direct hit and will be destroyed. He's about 150 mi. inland[at college] from the hit, but they're still telling the kids it would be a good idea to evacuate, but not until school is out tomorrow evening! ....I wanted to write to everyone and ask them to pray for Kevin as well as his mom, Grandpa and step-grandma who are trying to get to safety. Also his dad who can't even leave work because he'll be needed for the state of emergency."

[BurbankKarl]

have you seen the flooding graphic?

[BlueAngel]

Hitch a ride, what else?

[NautiNurse]

It's extremely unusual for a storm to maintain Cat 5 status for an extended length of time. Problem with the GOM storms is that the storm surge tends to reflect the strongest status of the storm, regardless of wind speed/SS Category at landfall.

For this reason, I shake my head in dismay when folks split hairs about the minute wind speed detail at the moment of landfall.

[Nita Nupress]

The people at the weather channel seemed to say that if it is slower the people would have to withstand the winds longer. This bugger is the size of Georgia and it is going to take time to pass through an area at that forward speed.

Well, I'm thinking I saw something online today that was trying to say that, at least when it comes to wind damage, it would be better for the inland folks (Austinites, Waconians, & other people on the I-35 corridor) if Rita's forward speed was slow. Of course that would be worse for people nearer the coast, so it's a tradeoff. I'll see if I can find that graph again.