[LikeLight]

They are saying it's about 15 miles north of the NHC track already, which, all other things being equal at this distance, translates to a 100 mile shift (northeastward) up the coast. It's potentially a big deal.

[LikeLight]

Sorry, forgot to source "they" - it's the folks on the EasternUS weather board that say it's 15 miles north of track.

[Types_with_Fist]

It's potentially a big deal.

The new track and cone, at least on PMSNBC, showed a sliver of southwest Louisiana. I've seen the loops as well and like several others am seeing a bit of bumping north and northwest.

[ContemptofCourt]

Unless it wobbles w or wsw again...NHC has been great in its forecasts all year....we need to trust them.

[Strategerist]

They are saying it's about 15 miles north of the NHC track already, which, all other things being equal at this distance, translates to a 100 mile shift (northeastward) up the coast. It's potentially a big deal.

Almost all storms exhibit a trochoidal (like a sine wave) wobble, sometimes with a quite long period (each wobble lasting 6-12 hours).

One problem with EasternUSWx is it's heavily populated by Northeastern Winter Snow weenies with fairly limited knowledge of the tropics.

That said, the beginnings of turns are indistinguishable from wobbles.

[Dog Gone]

They are saying it's about 15 miles north of the NHC track already, which, all other things being equal at this distance, translates to a 100 mile shift (northeastward) up the coast. It's potentially a big deal.

That would be a very big deal to me. That would put me on the western side of the eye, but would move the forecast track directly into Galveston Bay.