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Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico

Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; katrina; katrinassister; rita; tropical; twinhurricanes
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To: No Blue States

It was VERY hot in that area before the 1900 storm. I mentioned this to Dog Gone the other day.

The high pressure is quite strong, as is the anticyclone over the system.. lots of latent heat.

The water is pretty warm all the way to the coast.. not as warm as parts of the loop, but warm enough to sustain a cat4/5. If she slowed, she might upwell.. I don't think she'll slow much.


2,401 posted on 09/21/2005 3:50:30 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: CindyDawg

bttt


2,402 posted on 09/21/2005 3:50:31 PM PDT by Txsleuth (Arlington, Texas--future home of the Dallas Cowboys!)
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To: WestCoastGal
So, called our local church and they are going to take people in beginning tomorrow. I will be volunteering there tomorrow, so I will have the Dover Monster Mile thread up tonight sometime.

Bless your chevy drivin' heart, WCG.

Why did I have it in my head that you were in California? - or am I all confused?

Be safe and God Bless you and all those about to meet Rita.

LVM

2,403 posted on 09/21/2005 3:51:39 PM PDT by LasVegasMac ("God. Guts. Guns. I don't call 911." (bumper sticker))
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To: mewzilla

27.49 inches = 931 mb.


2,404 posted on 09/21/2005 3:52:10 PM PDT by JWojack
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To: Heatseeker

I think so too...

let's remember it is right over the LOOP current right now.

As it moves a bit west, the water isn't quite as warm.

There is some hope. But it all depends on just HOW strong she gets....


2,405 posted on 09/21/2005 3:52:10 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta van Talksoutthesideofhermouth)
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To: MikeinIraq

What's your thoughts? 130? I feel 145 on her and have for the last 48-hours when it comes to landfall. I think the latest Sat images are giving reason to believe eyewall replacement cycle is going on....and if you timed it right she wouldn't be going through one again at landfall...but hours before.

I don't see her weakening beyond 145.


2,406 posted on 09/21/2005 3:52:12 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache ("Scientology is dangerous stuff,it's like forming a religion based around Johnny Quest and Haji.")
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To: nwctwx

I think it was Fiedler that wrote "The Thermodynamic Speed Limit" for tornadoes, may have been Davies. Good paper, as was "Dynamic Pipes".

We don't have the concentration of urbanized areas on this section of coast that we did in Mississippi, and current tracks put the edge of HF winds right around Galveston and Gas City.

No way to forecast eyewall diameter at this point but assumining Katrina-esque proportions and a Matagorda landfall, look for primary surge damage from between Palacios on the SW extent, over to Galveston on the NE.

You'd expect secondary damage from funneling at Port Lavaca and Gas City, but fortunately Galveston and Gas City are at the far eastern edge of HF winds, based on current projections. Bay City, Lake Jackson, and Freeport, under this model, are looking down the barrel of a shotgun.

Angleton, West Columbia, Sweeney, and Brazonia seem to be high enough to escape surge effect, but they'll see max eyewall winds all the same.

FWIW, projected landfall has wobbled maybe ten miles north and back to its original position over the last 24 hours.


2,407 posted on 09/21/2005 3:52:21 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: Dog Gone

We're about 100 miles from landfall. You can come here but only if you leave the pets at your house, LOL!


2,408 posted on 09/21/2005 3:53:08 PM PDT by Humidston (It's Bush's fault)
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To: Syntyr

I do remember in New Orleans that text messaging back and forth did continue to work for everyone. Cellphones will no doubt be intermittant.


2,409 posted on 09/21/2005 3:53:17 PM PDT by sheikdetailfeather (If you still vote Democrat, you're still stuck on stupid!)
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To: truthandlife

We'll pray for y'all. Is your wife very far along? Hope not.

Also hope your home isn't located somewhere where it will sustain much damage. Being homeless (even temporarily) with 5 little ones has got to be rough! We did it with one child for a couple of weeks and I don't wish to repeat it.


2,410 posted on 09/21/2005 3:53:34 PM PDT by Zechariah_8_13 (Just North of Austin)
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To: JWojack
27.49 inches = 931 mb.

Thanks! Yikes. Rita's a lot lower at the moment, right? Jeez louise.

2,411 posted on 09/21/2005 3:53:48 PM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: truthandlife

It was 100 here today too.

Im praying God has mercy on us Texans.

I shudder to think what the coming days may be like for our southern friends without His divine intervention.
It gives me a sick feeling in the gut knowing the potential for destruction.

"Being a Cat 5 and having 4 children with 1 on the way, we will probably be leaving early tomorrow morning for Boerne. I don't know if our house can take 110 mph winds and I am not going to find out."

I dont blame you one bit, being anywhere near landfall isnt something worth testing.


2,412 posted on 09/21/2005 3:54:12 PM PDT by No Blue States (Fort Worth)
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To: greyfoxx39
Do you have art galleries? I am an artist and I love Santa Fe for the galleries. I don't have to spend a penny in those galleries, if they think you might they are real nice to you. I am sure they talk about you when you leave but we talk about them too. LOL
2,413 posted on 09/21/2005 3:54:39 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: mewzilla

The actual center of the Galveston storm did not pass over Galveston, but to the south.


2,414 posted on 09/21/2005 3:55:52 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: My Favorite Headache

I don't know.

I don't think she will weaken more than about 25 MPH from her peak.

That, right now, would mean 140 ish.

But I don't think she is done strengthening yet.


2,415 posted on 09/21/2005 3:56:34 PM PDT by MikefromOhio (Hey Fox News, MORE MOLLY, LESS Greta van Talksoutthesideofhermouth)
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To: raygun

Whoa...do I read that to mean it will be high-tide around the time of landfall? I recall landfall late Friday-early Saturday?


2,416 posted on 09/21/2005 3:57:04 PM PDT by SE Mom (God Bless those who serve..)
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To: All

general Honore coming up on Brit.


2,417 posted on 09/21/2005 3:57:13 PM PDT by samantha (Cheer up, the adults are in charge.)
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To: Strategerist
The actual center of the Galveston storm did not pass over Galveston, but to the south.

Do you know where?

2,418 posted on 09/21/2005 3:57:16 PM PDT by CedarDave ("I can't swing a dead cat without hitting a reporter" -- Lt. Gen. Honoré)
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To: Zechariah_8_13

My wife is 7 months. She has been having contractions because she is pretty stressed out. The house might be able to take the winds but I am not going to find out.

The worst part after Alicia was not having power for 4 days. It was blazing hot 90 degrees + and humid. It was miserable. I can't imagine my pregnant wife or kids being able to put up with that.


2,419 posted on 09/21/2005 3:57:37 PM PDT by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: WestCoastGal

Wish I could be there to help you. Rapid City is a long ways from hurricane activity. Most, if not all, of my relatives have evac'ed from the bay area up to Lufkin, Crockett and Palestine..........where my other relatives live.

Prayers to all. This will be a bad one.


2,420 posted on 09/21/2005 3:57:49 PM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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