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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Yes, it's definitely too early to trust this. When Katrina was at this stage, the forecast track was for Panama City.
It seem that Mr. Nagin is NOT watching the Weather Channel, and computor models !?!
The media should inform Nagin, about Hurricane Rita.
Q.- "Mr. Mayor is your buses still parked ?"
It's not out of the question. Brian Norcross on WFOR/Miami just indicated that NOLA is in play, even though it is on the edge of the future-track.
Don't be surprised with further eastward tracking as we move forward...
GFDL.
That last GFDL run was just not funny.. Not out of the question, and most models are following GFDL's lead on this, but anyone along any part of the Gulf should be watching this storm carefully and be prepared to take action with little notice.
From Jeff Master's Blog
While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas and Louisiana are at the highest risk. The current model trend is to recurve Rita earlier and earlier, so residents from Corpus Christi to New Orleans need to be particulary concerned.
True, but it makes no sense to BRING people back in. The levees won't stand up to a hard shower of rain, much less a tropical event.
The NWS just announced that at 12 noon, the middle Keys will go under mandatory evacuation, and the PTB are considering making the upper Keys evacuation mandatory as well.
Abb is correct. Nagin is bringing residents back into NOLA as we speak.
I am at 12 feet above sea level so I am OK until cat 4 or 5 a Carla type storm, cat 4 hit a port o'connor put 3 feet of water in my house. Direct hit cat 3 (Alica) put water at my door step. If this one looks like more then a cat 3 I will have to pay very close attention. Once Galveston Island starts evac it becomes dificult to leave my local, (San Leon) Galveston Island will evac very early, and they should, but no one else can leave until Galveston Island is finished. It is a smart way to evac galveston county, Island first then evac moving inland.
The knock on Nagin at the moment is his decision to bring people back into the city. If Rita even as much as skirts our area (nola) we are in hip deep trouble AGAIN. Our levees are weakened, it wouldn't take much surge to produce catastrophic events in this area.
I do onot think that is a wise move in the least.
"Come back to New Orleans and give us a mulligan at drowing you!"
GFDL leaves it south of us, so I am pulling for that one for now. Once it passes they keys I will cheer for the one that keeps it out of the US entirely.
The strongest convection is on the north side of this storm.
I am so confused about this Nagin guy. I mean WHO would want to bring people back right now. It makes zero sense. Wait til the season is over, clean the place up.
Is he just stupid?
susie
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