I was campaisning for National yesterday. We worked from 4:30 pm to 9:30 pm. Initially we held up billboard signs saying "Don Brash for PM (Prime Minister)", "Change the Government", and "Party Vote National" at the intersections between Dominion Road and Balmoral Road in Auckland. These two roads were full of commuters going home after work and they lead to Mt Albert and Mt Roskills respectively. Now both electorates are Labour-leaning (Mt Albert is in fact the home seat of the current Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark) and 75% of those who responded to our messages were actually positive. Imagine a decently conservative GOP candidate getting a good cheer at downtown Chicago and you will get the gust of what's happening.
Then we went to a truly swing area called Kingland and almost every reaction there were positive. I then knew that Labour's in deep trouble, and I would say the ship is sinking for them.
(OK I know it's not likely.)
14.9% in and the Nat lead holds.
ACT Party (right-leaning) doing well.
It may be a positive sign for National to be in the lead this early with a wide margin, given the global climate. (read: War On Terror).
Thanks for the report. That sounds very positive! I'm from the Chicago suburbs, so I can relate to your comparison very well. ;-)
Good luck!