Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
...Ophelia nearing hurricane strength as it moves closer to the Carolina coasts... ...Warnings and watches extended northward to Virginia...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Cape Hatteras. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from the South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 5 PM EDT...a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are now in effect north of Cape Hatteras to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from south of the South Santee River to Edisto Beach South Carolina.
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch is in effect from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia... including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...data from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA coastal Doppler radars indicate the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.6 north... longitude 78.1 west or about 110 miles east of Charleston South Carolina and about 110 miles south of Wilmington North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 4 mph and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A gradual turn toward the north is expected by Wednesday. However... steering currents remain weak...so some erratic motion will be possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts... and Ophelia is just below hurricane intensity. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Ophelia could become a hurricane again later tonight or on Wednesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles...and these winds will reach the coastline well in advance of the center. During the past hour... NOAA buoy 41004 located east-southeast of Charleston reported sustained winds of 50 mph with a gust to 65 mph...while NOAA buoy 41013 located south-southeast of Cape Fear reported sustained winds of 47 mph with a gust to 58 mph.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance aircraft has remained steady at 989 mb...29.21 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of 8 to 10 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15 inches over eastern North Carolina.
Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North Carolina tonight and Wednesday.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.6 N... 78.1 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Re: Phones - Also - make sure you have a cheapy phone in the house that is not cordless. Cordelss phones require electric power to operate, even if they are charged. The old corded ones need no power for use as long as the phone lines are still working.
Absolutely! I forgot that, too!
Another thing - If you have a laptop computer make sure it is charged. If the power goes out it will still work for a couple of hours and you may still be able to reach the internet thru dial up.
You, man.
O frabjous day.
Before today, we haven't had any rain in weeks here.
The Tar River is shallow enough to walk across.
We need the rain, but not all at once!
I'm outta here, be in tomorrow...
MKM
Yep, WRAL confirms.
MKM
We got some this afternoon, but it's not enough.
Weather Channel predicting only around an inch of rain tomorrow with 20-30 mph gusts.
MKM
Getting some heavy wind and rain now,with a little thunder thrown in!
For us? But if she doesn't turn east as soon as they think(remember when that happened before?) we could get some more.
One thing I've learned after 15 years of being a hurricane junkie is that if nothing else you can count on the suckers being unpredictable. Guess I'll have to start paying more attention to this one.
MKM
Where are you located?
WTNT61 KNHC 132103
TCUAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005
DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA ALONG WITH
STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH WERE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 75-MPH HURRICANE AS OF 5 PM EDT...
OR 2100Z.
FORECASTER STEWART
Tell me what to tell my kids in Wilmington, please!
My Mom and Dad are in Wilmington too. They don't seem to be too worried--having been through many hurricanes there. Sounds like rainfall is the biggest threat for this event.
Wilmington
Heavy rains have let up for now,and the winds have died down.It comes and goes in spurts.
"It comes and goes in spurts" could also signify most of the liberals on Capitol Hill.Hey a little humor to ligthen the tension is good. LOL.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
