Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 29
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 13, 2005
...Ophelia getting better organized as it wobbles slowly
north-northwestward toward the southeastern United States...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
north of Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet...including the Pamlico
Sound...and from south of the South Santee River to Edisto Beach
South Carolina.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in
the watch area within the next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means
that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z... data from an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA coastal Doppler radars indicate
the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 32.3
north... longitude 78.0 west or about 120 miles east-southeast of
Charleston South Carolina and about 130 miles south of Wilmington
North Carolina.
Ophelia is moving slowly toward the north-northwest near 3 mph and
this general motion is forecast to continue today. A gradual turn
toward the north is expected tonight or on Wednesday. However...
steering currents remain weak...so some erratic motion will be
possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Some
slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and
Ophelia could become a hurricane again later today or tonight.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center. Ophelia's strongest winds are located relatively far from
the center...roughly 50 to 60 miles...and these winds will reach the
coastline well in advance of the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently
reported sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 58 mph.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 989 mb...29.21 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in areas of
onshore winds in association with Ophelia. A storm surge of 6 to
8 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.
Ophelia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to
10 inches over far northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina...with possible isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 15
inches over eastern North Carolina.
Isolated tornadoes are possible along the coastal areas of North
Carolina later today and tonight.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...32.3 N... 78.0 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
Grape vines here too! Light and dark muscadines, and several varieties of bunch grapes too. My favorite is Blanc du Bois.
Hmm...
She's a big storm...
YUP to you both.
I just left voice mail for a friend with an RV on the water over on Chincoteague. He stores his boat and RV here for the winter - no point in it getting flooded over there when he can just drive it the 15 miles to here if the surge predictions continue the way they currently are.
Here's a webcam in that area. It's one of the early piers that got wiped out in a previous hurricane. Jennette's Pier. Looks like surf's up.
Someone on another thread said they're storm-seasoned and well-prepared down there. I guess so.
Was down there June/July for a hugh family reunion, 14 adults, 14 granchil'rens.
Stayed a a little ways down from Nag's Head Fishing Pier on S. Virginia Dare. Great house right on the beach, great time, wish it could lasted a lot longer. Hope it survives, would love to go back.
Picked up some yummy bacon-wrapped scallops at the fish market Austin Fish Co. down the street. Almost every square inch of their are walls are covered with pictures of previous storms. Even if you don't like seafood, it's worth it to go in and look at their pictures.
Saw the wreckage of another (Jennette's) fishing pier further down, the one with the fish museum, when we went out to a seafood restaurant across the street from there down on Croatan (sp?).
My sister lives in Raleigh/Durham and she usually arranges our family reunions, so they've mostly been on the outer banks.
Happy Birthday. Sorry about your plans..
Thank you!
Even if I get rained out, we'll make the best of it.
Charge your cell phones.
I forgot that one.
And we'll all panic together!
You will do just fine. Howlin and NN got me through my first real 'cane season - so relying on them for guidance is a very smrt thing to do!!!!
While I was at physical therapy this morning hubby came back home and put away all the outside stuff and that is the extent of our preparations........we're going grocery shopping when he gets home from work, but that was a planned trip - because I need groceries, and the sale ends tonight :)
I just plugged my cell phone in - thanks for the reminder :)
I never thought about outside.. I know, I know...DUH!
The most mundane objects outside, that we take for granted, can become airborn when the winds starts blowing.
Hubby still has to bring some stuff in off the lower roof where he had started putting up siding this weekend, but chair, tables, coolers, the swimming pool ladder, have all been put in the barn. The only thing still outside is the folding chair I use to sit on while I am waiting for the school bus to arrive.
...Ophelia wobbling slowly north-northwestward toward the southeastern United States...
Tropical storm-force winds nearing the Carolina coasts
Movement toward north-northwest near 4 mph. Maximum sustained winds 70 mph. Minimum central pressure 989 mb.
I wouldn't mind it at all if a couple buckets of rain managed to drift over here NW of Charlotte. :-/
Pinz
Eat up all of your ice cream in case you lose electricity!
(May favorite hurrican preparation. lol)
Pinz
My favorite part of hurricane prep as a kid in FL was tossing all the patio furniture into the pool.
Hated having to pull it all out though.
That's what I call planning!!!!!!!!
*SIGH*.....my daughter ate the last of the ice cream on Sunday - I need to buy more tonight :)
LOL We like to stock up in August and September, just in case. ;-)
Pinz
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
