Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Gabz]

Nobody around here is paying a bloody bit of attention to this thing but me it seems - I guess I could (maybe shuld) take that as a good sign.

[Dog Gone]

It's foolish not to pay attention to tropical storms or weaker hurricanes, especially when they're slow movers. Tropical Storm Allison did more damage to Houston than Hurricane Alicia did.

And the lessons of Hurricane Charlie and the danger of rapid intensification shouldn't have been so quickly forgotten.

Having said that, there isn't much indication that Ophelia will develop into a major hurricane or even that she'll plow deep inland. But there's enough uncertainty in the official forecast that it would be foolish to quit worrying about her.

[aBootes]

Nobody around here is paying a bloody bit of attention to this thing but me it seems

Special weather warnings have gone up in DC-MD. Nothing exciting, just the potential for wind and rain on the east side of I-95.

[Hatteras]

How in the heck did you break your ankle sewing? You do know that you are supposed to take your socks off before you darn the dern things, dontchu?

[CoolChange]

Alot of the attitude around here right now is that is only a tropical storm/category 1. What most people seem to forget is that a small storm for a couple of days can do as much or more damage than a fast moving big storm.

[Gabz]

It's foolish not to pay attention to tropical storms or weaker hurricanes, especially when they're slow movers.

I agree - and retract my previous statement to a certain extent. I just got off the phone with a friend who is currently putting all their outside stuff in the garage. Her husband called and said his boss was cutting everyone loose early to get home and batten down. It may be 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the west - but we are surrounded by water.

I haven't quit worrying about Ophelia - but I think we will come out unscathed - unlike the Carolina coastal areas.

[Gabz]

Nothing exciting, just the potential for wind and rain on the east side of I-95.

Gee - I live on the east side of I-95 - nearly as far to the eastside as you can get without hitting the Atlantic :)

[Gabz]

How in the heck did you break your ankle sewing?

I did not break my ankle WHILE sewing, silly - I broke my ankle because I own a PORTABLE sewing machine and it was on the floor and I tripped over it in the dark.

[TheLion]

I would think this thing could drop lots of rain, with its slow moving speed. That could be the biggest problem! As it is, it is doing lots of damage to the coasts right now.

[Gabz]

Coastal erosion is definitely going to be a major concern with this one.

[aBootes]

I live on the east side of I-95

Ah well. If it gets exciting, you can always come stay with me. I live 3 mi west of I-95.

[aBootes]

I just looked at the models on weather underground. I really like how they diverge for the next two days, agree on Thursday's position, and then diverage wildly again. Real confidence builder there.

[Freedom'sWorthIt]

" I hope I don't ever have to go through that again."

I don't want to either. Looks like Ophelia is "just" a Tropical Storm now - I wouldn't mind her rain.

[PleaseNoMore]

Not to be O/T, but would you add me to your lists? Thank so much!

[NautiNurse]

lol...thought you were already on the list...

[PleaseNoMore]

Nope, I'm not. I have to search for the hurricane threads. By the time I find the ones I was reading the storms have come and gone, lol.

[Gabz]

Thank you for your kind offer. Under optimum conditions it would take more than 4 hours for me to even reach I-95 :)

[Gabz]

On the list now!!!!!!!!

[TheLion]

[Gabz]

None of us need this crapola - but at least it is not FL, AL, MS, or LA this time around.