Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread, Part II (Update: Ophelia expected to remain Cat 1 storm)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 10 Spetember 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

As usual, please no graphics >50K, no pics of Hamlet's Ophelia.

[NautiNurse]

New thread with updated links for NC/SC/VA

[Nathan Zachary]

Yesterday they said it was heading back out to sea and was no longer a concern.

[GummyIII]

Now you've done it...you've put VA in there. Sheesh! At least I'm in the western portion. Hey, Gabz and MoJo...batten down the hatches!

[lunarbicep]

Thanks for this thread, NN

[alancarp]

Yeah, well, the hurricane center has been a bit inconsistent with this one. Best guesses now -- and no, they're not firm -- is that this one could hit the S. Carolina coast on Tuesday. Possibly as a Cat 2 storm or low Cat 3.

[Flyer]

I hope you get a break by Thanksgiving!

Thanks for all you do.

[SE Mom]

Actually - what I heard yesterday was it was no longer a concern for Florida...they've been discussing this loop for days.

[neutrality]

I'm pretty sure they did not

[NautiNurse]

The three day forecast includes the SE portion of VA, and the five day forecast includes a whole lot more of VA...

[alancarp]

To be fair to the NHC and all other forecasters, once a storm gets stationary -- particularly for multiple days -- all bets are off on final destinations!

[dfwgator]

This is the real reason Michael Brown was removed from Katrina.

[CindyDawg]

Every day this week , there has been a different projection.

[tiredoflaundry]

This is one confusing storm!

[NautiNurse]

This storm has been loopy and mysterious...

[OpusatFR]

I'm in Tidewater. I'm also surrounded by 90 ft. pines.

Ish.

Die, Opelia, Die!!!

[OpusatFR]

I'm in Tidewater. I'm also surrounded by 90 ft. pines.

Ish.

Die, Opelia, Die!!!

[GummyIII]

Oh, we've been hit hard before, with flooding and trees down being the major damage. I had a huge old oak tree on the house with Isabel. Last year, one of the hurricanes caused major flooding here with no way to go anywhere for a couple of days. But I'm hugged on all sides by the Appalachian mountains, so am pretty well sheltered for the most part. Just call me an Appalachian American. ;-) (That's PC for hillbilly..grin.)

[Nathan Zachary]

I'm Darn sure they did. They said it was heading northeast out into the atlantic.

But that was yesterday around 4pm. I haven't heard anything else till now. But I wasn't looking either.

[GummyIII]

Yikes...pines have shallow roots. At least my oaks are deep rooted. It takes some major twisting wind to pull them out. The one that fell was twisted, too, so I suspect we had a small tornado (common during bad weather here...usually small).