Posted on 09/01/2005 12:48:45 PM PDT by Paul Ross
Some of us are not so sure....
The Dong-Feng 41 was fitted with MIR-V's. Its range is 8000 mi.
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/chinesemissiledes.html
CSS-X-10 DF-41 Dong Feng 41 ICBM N MIRVs ~2005
Sure, but . . can you keep a secret?
The Chinese just tested a project with the N. Koreans. They've managed to combine their 'Long March' missile with Kim's Taep'o-dong missile.
Frankly, I don't like the sound of it: the 'Long-dong' missile.
And what if you were to find out that the Chinese have been mass manufacturing...covertly... nuclear warheads to our best designs at a feverish pace since they revealed they had those designs back in '96?
And if they have THOUSANDS of deliverable warheads that could easily be launched from either short or medium range cruise or ballistic missiles from their thousands of container ships and dozens of ports around the periphery of the U.S....which has NO defense against such deployed. Repeat. No defense. We would likely not even know what was happening or who was hitting us. GPS guidance would make their attacks as precise and accurate as our own. Our ICBMs would be toast. Our Bombers caught on the ground. Our Trident submarines...and our Attack subs... in port would be annhilated.
Our retaliation...if we had a surviving command structure (unlikely since we still have Project Looking Glass in mothballs)...would then be reduced to using residual Tridents at sea, and our carriers...if they still have nuclear forces. Rather less than you imagine.
ICBMs. Russia currently deploys 585 operational ICBMs
"No. And that is not the point."
It is the point. The Chinese can threaten to nuke Los Angeles over Taiwan.
"In my estimation, China is banking on the idea that America will not support defending Taiwan and will invade, threatening with nuclear war all the while."
OK.
So what if Taiwan threatens a nuclear strike on Beijing?
Or what if the US President decides to raise the ante?
What if the US President thinks "Screw it, they didn't vote for me anyway" and calls their bluff?
If that happens, it comes down to warhead counts--and that means we would have what's known as "escalation dominance." China can threaten to launch nuclear missiles at US cities--we can destroy China's leadership "en passant" ("in passing"), as they say in chess.
"The issue is not what you would do, or what I would do, or what any rational person would do."
The Chinese are very rational, no matter what you think.
"It is, what will CHINA do? And I repeat, anybody who dismisses this is a fool."
In strategy, it is wise to consider the worst consequences of one's potential course of action.
What is the worst consequence China can inflict on the US? What is the worst consequence the US can inflict on China's leadership?
YOU SAID... "Experts say the warhead is intended to be manoeuvrable like a cruise missile after re-entering the atmosphere from space."
Cant do it EFFECTIVELY on descent IMHO. Have to do it in the ASCENT or boost phase, when the missles are the most vulnerable. IMHO, the best way to do THAT is via a comprehensive space based missle defense system.
This is the system that finally sunk the Russians when Reagan insisted in developing it in STAR WARS...we eventually cancleed the program.
China would not want us to continue with it. It makes the limited nuclear game of chicken I described above way too costly for them.
China: 20
USA: 7200
How sure are you about those numbers?
"And what if you were to find out that the Chinese have been mass manufacturing...covertly... nuclear warheads to our best designs at a feverish pace since they revealed they had those designs back in '96?
"And if they have THOUSANDS of deliverable warheads that could easily be launched from either short or medium range cruise or ballistic missiles from their thousands of container ships and dozens of ports around the periphery of the U.S....which has NO defense against such deployed."
It's rather easy to recognize a facility that has nuclear weapons. It's the one with incredibly tight security.
What you're suggesting is that the Chinese would leave nuclear warheads lying around unattended, subject to what the shipping business calls "inventory shrinkage."
OK, let's get something straight: The Chinese are considerably smarter than you are. Just because you're stupid AND crazy enough to do something this irresponsible does not mean that the Chinese are.
Each of the Type 094 SSBNs can mount 16 JL-2 ballistic missiles (navalized DF-31s) with a range of 8000 kms. When deployed, this missile will allow Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the United States for the first time from operating areas located near the Chinese coast.
Equipped with the JL-2 missiles, the Type 094 SSBNs would only have to patrol just to the northeast of the Kuril Islands to hold about three-fourths of the United States at risk.
The second Type 094 is reportedly nearing completion.
Have you read Dragon's Fury?
Oh, you mean ALL of Red China.
And as for intelligence, don't go there.
"Seems to me like you are also forgetting about their recent deployment of the first Type 094 SSBN."
Wow. One ballistic missile submarine (with another on the way) with 16 missiles is the war-winning weapon?
What happened to the "thousands" of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles you left lying around to be stolen by longshoremen? Oh, wait, they all got stolen, right.
BTW...I sincerely hope that either (a) you don't own firearms, or that (b) you don't believe your own drivel about what constitutes proper security for one's armaments.
Paul,
Unlikely.
It takes trillions of dollars to build those weapons. I am not talking about R&D, i am just talking aout hardware costs. If you add up all Chinese military spending in the last decade and if they apply all of it for nukes, it'd be only a few hundred missles, at the most.
It may be likely that the 20 missles estimation is wrong, i'd agree with it, it can easily be 100 missles, but i don't think it'd be a thousand.
consider Japan. they had 20 years after to war, as a democratic nation, to prepare for success, which finally came to them starting in the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's, no doubt helped along by the fortunes they made during the war in vietnam (and korea before that!).
the japanese banks and decision making circles did not invest very well and partly as a result, japan *STILL* has a hangover from those heady days.
the problems in china are *MUCH* worse, because it has happened so fast. ask yourself what all the *steelmills* are going to do in china... for the military? only if the military is stuck in the 1950's mindset. these and other poorly choosen factories are inefficient as all heck, and sucking up a huge amount of investment capital from dumb europpeans, americans and japanese investors, but they will *NEVER* make any real money.
the Japanese at least made a stab at the right decisions, picking "automatic software development" and "robotics" for example. the software stuff bombed out, but japan probably has the most advanced robots in the world, so they got something for their decision...
the chinese are *far* behind the japanese on that sort of thing, even though they say the right things about nanotechnology and getting to the moon...
I cant believe you said that "out loud". I've thought it more than once, though.
Scary. In so many ways...
"Oh, you mean ALL of Red China."
But you didn't say the weapons were in China, you said they were in ports all around the US.
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