I completely understand strike probability tables. Not to worry. But thanks for the vote of confidence.
The question I posed remains the same for those who want to play the blame game: At what point do you order a mandatory evacuation of a major city if you are in charge?
When the probability of the eye wall passing within 50 miles of your city exceeds 50%.
In this instance, first thing Saturday morning.
Thanks for asking.
No other city is stuck in bowls several feet below sea level. NOLA was a completely different situation, known to anyone paying attention for decades. The mayor and gov should not only have ordered mandatory evacs on Saturday morning, but mandatory immediate shutdown of nonessential businesses, to emphasize the seriousness of the situation.