"Looks to me like there's almost no way New Orleans misses the eyewall. Worst possible outcome for the
city."
Well yes, but....see how the 2200 +12/24 plot is drifting east of the 1600 one?
Fingers crossed, hoping the trend continues.
Max surge seems to take place from 355 to 015 degrees relative to the forward motion of the storm. As big as this one is, that swath will be pretty wide. I hate playing god, but I think fewer will die if the surge comes ashore someplace where the population center isn't largely below sea level.
The further east this storm drifts, the less the westward wind at the head of the eyewall will drive it into Lake P.
Note though, that she's slowing down, and that none of the actual data shows any eastward drift at all, not yet. The longer the winds have to drive the surf ashore, the worse the surge, no matter where it strikes.
WWL-TV just noted that the SuperDome's single primary generator is underground... No word on any secondary generators.
I have family that live in Slidell. North shore...they evacuated but any chance they will have homes not under water?
I hope the trend continues as well, but like you said, your data has yet to show that easterly component. And there just ain't much more time or room for that to happen any more.
Well, I've got to go to bed. Thanks for all your hard work and for the information - I've really gotten interested in what makes these things tick, and I've learned quite a lot from you and from others here. I just wish there was some way the people of New Orleans could be spared the misery they're about to face.