Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 28 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is finally underway. Louisiana officials are warning of complete failure to levy systems, and pleading with people to leave low lying areas. For those who choose to stay, they are recommending picks and axes for breaking through to access their roofs during flooding.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be rushing hurricane preparations to completion.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

http://www.wjbo.com - BR radio station. Callers calling in and describing traffic etc.
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[cmsgop]

He won't, he is staying

[CaptainK]

Fox News just reported, that the government predicts, half of the well constructed homes in New Orleans will have structural damage.

[MplsSteve]

I noticed that rail service in and out of NO is shut down too.

I own shares of CSX and according to their web site, they're not gonna move any traffic in or out of NO. Here's what they say:

Service Bulletin - Hurricane Katrina, Aug. 28
Released: Aug 28, 2005

Hurricane Katrina is now a Category 5 storm, and it continues to move WNW in the Gulf of Mexico. Predications are that the storm will make landfall near New Orleans, La., mid-day Monday, Aug. 29. Flood gates in New Orleans were closed at 6 a.m. on Sunday, Aug. 28, and rail traffic in the area is suspended.

CSXT is monitoring the path of Hurricane Katrina and has activated its hurricane preparedness plan for the Gulf Coast. Some traffic scheduled for interchange with other railroads at New Orleans is being rerouted through different gateways. Weather conditions permitting, rail traffic will continue to run as usual today from Mobile east through the Florida Panhandle.

As a result of the initial impact of Katrina in south Florida on Friday, freight and passenger service on CSXT's network is being restored incrementally as subdivisions are inspected and deemed safe for operations. Tri-Rail service is scheduled to resume Monday, Aug. 29.

All precautions are being taken to ensure the safety of our employees, customers, and the public with minimum delay to shipments as we continue to monitor the progress of the storm.

Looks like any rail evacuation is out of the question too.

[oceanview]

Shep is on bourbon street. unless they fly him out by chopper, he is stuck there now.

[in hoc signo vinces]

Hypothetically, there would be simultaneous eye wall detonations...no mushroom cloud because it's neither a ground level nor sea level detonation. (high altitude air bursts)

Somone else made mention to the addition of heat energy to the storm from the use of a nuke, but I am not so convinced such an occurence (or heat convection) would occur. In other words...I dont think the detonation of nuke is going to add energy to the storm.

Seems to me two different forms of energy release are occuring, hydro-thermal (hurricane) and, depending on the bomb, either fission or fission-fusion (nuclear detonation) Hard for one to piggy back upon the other.

It's all speculation, but it would be interesting to see if by some means of man we could disrupt the energy flow of the storm or at least disperse it by means of creating our own type of pressure wave to interfere with the storms convection currents.

It's all scifi, no doubt...but too bad we cant test it.

We're at the mercy of nature as always. I hope the storm looses strength and heads back out to sea to die, but such is wishful thinking...pray for those in its path.

[Black Tooth]

I can imagine.

On the west coast, I think the worst I had to deal with was a winter about 3 or 4 years ago, and we had like 40 mph winds, that lasted several hours, and I was more concerned with that, than any earthquake we'd experienced. I just can't imagine going through 165 mph plus winds for any amount of time.

[GRRRRR]

Watching the WDSU live on line news feed.
State trooper just indicated that I-10 is STILL backed up, they are ENDING the contraflow at 1600h local time.

Their weather crawl says winds at 175 with gusts to 207mph...pressure at 26.75in.

this is going to be horrible for not only Nawleans, but the
Oil industry is going to get whacked big time...

[jdm]

"I heard a reporter on Fox News reading that report from the National Weather Service. Do you have the complete copy of that warning?"

Here ya go....

Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans

WWUS74 KLIX 281550NPWLIXURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.

CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...

AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...

BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEWCROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARHURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE..

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

[abb]

Anyone seen Gov. Blanco or Mayor Nagin on TV since this morning?

[RDTF]

I think it was Camille that caused major flooding in Memphis -

[bjs1779]

We used to experiment by dropping silver iodide in to them. Castro complained about the extra rainfall and the program was canceled. They claimed 10 - 30 % wind reduction, but it is still not provable due to lack of research.

[gov_bean_ counter]

These forecasters are in uncharted territory. They do not have any validated models for a storm this magnitude moving in these conditions. Any prediction regarding landfall is a big SWAG. Maybe they are right, maybe not. All I know is if I were in Galveston, I'd be all gassed up ready to go.

[eastforker]

Thank you TS Allison.

[cmsgop]

Not me!

[flutters]

I was listening to the same report. Chilling. The eye wall is 20 miles wide.

[maggief]

Nope.

[pax_et_bonum]

That was Allison?

Thanks. I wasn't sure.

[maineman]

I agree, I'd be gone as well. My point was that thousands of people evacuated the Carolina's several times for not.

The news media has called 'foul' so many times in the past.

This one looks loke a killer, I agree.

The damage of calling 'foul' so many times is that when one like this happends people don't heed the warnings until it is too late.

[hole_n_one]

Katrina is a beast of epic proportions.

[samantha]

Jerry Rivers is running around now looking for his yellow slicker.