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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I keep thinking Drudge will put up some big headline on his site as it seems most of America has no idea yet of how potential this threat is. He seems to be asleep on this one.
I have an empty 5 gallon gas can that I should get filled tommorow. As for NO.... It sounds like they need a lot of prayers.
drudge is too busy finding pop-up sponsors.
GOES 12 is back up now. The newest image shows a fairly well defined (not super warm) eye... it's also embedded in the central dense overcast better than earlier. Should be some nice visible shots to wake up to.
"drudge is too busy finding pop-up sponsors."
LOL
I know exactly what you mean there. Of course he is pretty good at pop Unders too. And that dang Java script that reloads the page in the middle of reading something. Nasty stuff. I still think a lot of people get breaking news there first as far as the internet goes. Thanks To FR I get it before they do.
Actually not. For my purposes -- trading -- the important part isn't the time span, the ''when'', it's the ''where''. Katrina is evidently now likely to hit X number of GOM rigs, and that will skew prices hugely for a couple of days, and longer term will contribute to the spec fever which has been infecting energy prices for half a year or so.
We got caught in Emily that came ashore over Cancun in July.
That storm was a 4 almost a 5. What a nightmare.
Prayers for everyone.
wow....looks good.....extremely cold cloudtops exploding in the ne quadrant....which has been weaker (nw weakest)....cat 4 by 11am advisory.
Katrina Threatens Fla. With Encore Visit
By JOHN PAIN, Associated Press Writer
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050827/ap_on_re_us/tropical_weather
MIAMI, Fla. - Utility crews scrambled to restore power to more than 1 million customers Friday as Hurricane Katrina, blamed for seven deaths and miles of flooded streets in South Florida, threatened the state with an encore visit.
Katrina was churning in the Gulf of Mexico and on a path to make landfall anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana as early as Monday, possibly as a Category 4 storm.
"I'm so sick of this," said Pat Jackson, an interior decorator in Homestead. Her apartment building was flooded with several inches of water during Katrina's first pass across the state.
"It seems like every other week or month another one comes," she said.
Scenes of Katrina's impact were everywhere Friday — work crews sawing trees crippled by the winds; people canoeing through inundated streets; a 727 cargo plane pushed along a runway fence; sailboats resting askew on a sandy shore.
Florida has been hit by six hurricanes since last August, and the Panhandle was slammed by Hurricane Ivan last year, and then again by Hurricane Dennis this year, both Category 3 storms. Katrina was a Category 1 with 80 mph winds when it hit Florida on Thursday.
On Friday, Gov. Jeb Bush urged residents in many of the same Panhandle areas to monitor the storm and make necessary preparations. If Katrina hit at Category 4 strength, as forecasters say it could, it would mean sustained winds topping 130 mph.
Bush said he had asked for federal disaster assistance for Miami-Dade and Broward counties, where some residents said they were caught off guard by the gathering storm.
"Maybe we can get rid of the phrase minimal hurricane," state meteorologist Ben Nelson said Friday. "There is no such thing as a minimal hurricane."
The death toll grew to seven, including four people killed by falling trees and two boaters who tried to ride out the storm in their crafts.
Risk modeling company AIR Worldwide estimated insured losses from Katrina's first landfall could approach $600 million.
Katrina, the second hurricane to hit Florida this year, grew from a disorganized 50-mph tropical storm to one with 92-mph wind gusts in a few hours Thursday.
It pummeled South Florida with blankets of rain and howling winds. Darkened skies lit up with popping power transformers, trees flew across streets and rain swamped some neighborhoods with water up to waist high.
"We had wind coming from two directions. It sounded like a super wind tunnel," said Scott Resnick, who rode out the storm in Hallandale Beach.
As it moved out into the Gulf on Friday, Katrina became a Category 2 hurricane and lashed the Florida Keys with strong outer bands that could dump up from 15 to 20 inches over the island chain.
At 2 a.m. EDT, the eye of the hurricane was located about 135 miles west of Key West. It was moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph.
The National Hurricane Center said Katrina was expected to strengthen significantly over warm Gulf waters and warned residents from Florida to southeast Louisiana to be ready.
Hardware stores in the Panhandle reported increased sales of gasoline containers, lanterns, batteries and tarps. Joe Crews at Meredith and Sons Lumber in Gulf Breeze said a steady stream of people came in to buy plywood Thursday.
"They're not anxious, but they are cautious," he said. "A lot of them haven't gotten repaired since the last storms, and they want to try to take the steps to save what they've got left."
Katrina's first swipe across Florida left about 50 homes flooded in Homestead and 40 mobile homes damaged in Broward County.
At a 12-unit apartment complex in Davie, Beverly Johnson, 41, and her 7-year-old son used pots to hold all the dripping water after their roof caved in during the storm.
"Water came in and then the ceiling collapsed," she said. "We were really shaken up last night."
Street flooding and debris strewn on the roads made many streets impassable, a situation made worse by power outages that affected street lights.
An overpass under construction in Miami-Dade County collapsed onto a highway. No injuries were reported, but the freeway — a main east-west thoroughfare — was closed for 20 blocks.
David Carter rode out the storm in his Coconut Grove home, listening as avocados were torn off branches and hitting the structure.
"It sounded like tiny bowling balls hitting the top of the roof and rolling down," he said. "You just heard the big thud."
The hurricane hindered the Coast Guard's search early Friday for a family of five who went out on their 24-foot pleasure boat. A Coast Guard helicopter finally found Edward and Tina Larsen and their three children. Their conditions were not immediately known.
The hurricane emptied the usually bustling streets of Miami Beach. The city is hosting celebrities and partygoers in town for Sunday's MTV Video Music Awards. MTV called off its pre-awards festivities Thursday and Friday.
And in the face of all the damage, some people took advantage of the wild weather to have fun. Surfers hit South Florida beaches Thursday ahead of the storm, and after it passed Friday.
"It's like a one-day vacation," said 17-year-old surfer Chris Dobson in Deerfield Beach. "We're just hoping to catch a few good waves, and have some fun out here while we can."
___
On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Reading that article--I coudn't help recalling last year when thousands of false claims were filed with FEMA in Miami-Dade County after the storms. Miami-Dade was not touched by any of last year's storms.
Did I see 950 MB just on this thread?
Good Lord...
this thing still has at least 48 hours over super hot water too....
Please tell me exactly what all the number at the beginning of this thread title mean and Does this sound viable?
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=e74eb196012076dda4ab3c9ae24a6583&showtopic=47298
I guess I should specify the "00z GFDL" Part.
Thank you.
Yep--recon
> 00z GFDL: 917mb and then 163mph at height, then a cat 4/cat 5 moving into SE LA
Thankyou. Is 00z a time? And if so then how is it converted to normal time.
wow.
That is something around 35-40 MB today....
Of course you could take a bath in the GOM, but still....
The thing that really worries me if that this entire SW turn wasn't even anticipated except by one model, which was off on the timing a few days ago.
I wonder how solid the intensity forecasts are, not to mention the locations.....
scary stuff indeed.
00Z is midnight GMT or Midnight in London :)
Right now it is 0700Z (I may be adding wrong, it's been a looooooong day)
Thanks again. It sounds like that model run was several hours ago if I understand correctly. Time to call it a night I guess.
I was just looking at the water vapor image loops.
I think I see a couple things...
first of all, this is easily the best the storm has looked.
secondly, it appears that the high pressure both to the North and to the West remain strong (I think they pointed that out at 11PM as well).
third, the motion looks more like SW instead of WSW and I don't see anything to change it until at least the 1100AM timeframe....
yeah...
NHC runs those models constantly, but they generally won't put out any kind of full update until 5 AM, or whenever the data if fully available....
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