Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

ok--saw estimates in the 2:00AM update.

[atlanta67]

""Several hours ago, heard 21 rigs were already evacuated. See nwctwx post above with more info.""

hate to say it, but oil could be at $80 by next weekend, with substantial damage to the oil rigs and platforms.

[Tall_Texan]

Warch For Snakes Bump

[dennis1x]

max flight wind of 120mph on first pass (from nw to se i believe)...would correspond to around 105 surface.

[NautiNurse]

I'll need to dust the cobwebs off the bicycle.

[Ingtar]

I swear she is paralleling the northern Cuba coast.

[NautiNurse]

OMG--did I just hear 950mb?

[nwctwx]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 04
Time: 05:53:30Z
Latitude: 24.4°N
Longitude: 84°W
Location: 139 mi NW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2673 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (48°) @ 105 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi NW (325°)
Sea level pressure: 950 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9974 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: OPEN NNW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented NE (60°), major axis length: 23 mi, minor axis length: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

[dennis1x]

pressure down to 950mb, still having problems closing off the northern eyewall...which is the last hope of non-ideal conditions.

[dennis1x]

the max wind can be updated to:

120mph at 231 degrees,

[NautiNurse]

What is causing the eyewall problem?

[dennis1x]

dry air entrainment...which has been present since east of florida....its just a matter of time before its evacuated though..imo.

[NautiNurse]

120 mph is flight level--translating to 108mph sea level using 90%?

[dennis1x]

yep...108....which is lower than the correlating pressure would lead you to expect. but the winds will catch up.

the scary thing is that the pressure has dropped to 950mb WITHOUT a closed eyewall for the past day....

[AntiGuv]

Here's an interesting track:

[rwfromkansas]

amazing, isn't it.

If it can pull enough moisture around itself to get a stronger nw core, this could be a real big problem considering how big it already is without a good nw core!

[nwctwx]

NHC has done very well in this time frame this year. I would guess she'll come in within 75 miles of from the current point we see. It's tough to say exactly when/where she will turn till she does so.

[nwctwx]

The storm is likely undergoing a rapid intensification cycle right now. Before the satellite blackout, cloud tops were cooling very quickly and also quickly circling the center. When it comes back online, the storm will likely look much better. 2-3 hours of quick intensification, should see winds come up in the next few hours.

[NautiNurse]

I can't remember having such a sick feeling about a storm that was actually moving away from here before.

[dennis1x]

goes 10 doesnt/didnt go into eclipse but you only get 1 hr images i think...this one is only 1 hour old...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ir/geo/1km/20050827.0530.goes10.x.ir1km.12LKATRINA.85kts-965mb-247N-833W.jpg