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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
No local hurricane statements have been issued for either Biloxi MS or Mobile AL at this point.
Hmm. It didn't work. Maybe if you say it backwards?
pressure up to 949, max winds around 90mph, eyewall open on nw side.
shes got a LONG way to go to cat 4.
12z models still centering in on SE LA. Many show major hits to NO.
agree it has to come from ese to push the water up into NO and the lake which will cause the walls to break--due south not so bad,but it can track to the east the wobble back//these things do strange things
Great. I'm in Ocean Springs :(
That's just not true. That's just the easiest one to visualize. A storm coming from the southwest is every bit as devastating.
And the swamps south of New Orleans won't cool the jets of any hurricane to any significant extent.
If I lived in New Orleans, I'd be gathering the important papers and heading west. The city might get lucky again, but it only has to get unlucky once.
The Weather Channel said that anyone living in the Florida panhandle to Central La needs to take heed.
any of those tracks would be an absolute disaster for New Orleans....
Katrina was forecast to weaken slightly this morning before going through her next cycle. I would fully expect a category four hurricane by tonight.
DO NOT BE FOOLED by this slight rise in pressure this morning...it was forecast.
In depth meteorological analysis from some of the top forecasters in the nation
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15
Yeah, she's just re-organizing right now. Everything is go for a cat4 still.
it was an eyewall cycle. YOu can see it on the satellite a little bit...
That's a lot of real estate.
Do you have a baby yet?
looks like the shift east is starting.
NO may get spared again, though I do not think it will go east enough to spare them completely, and they may still have some bad flooding and wind.
But, it looks like the nightmare scenario of it hitting just west of town won't come to pass.....probably. The models may shift again.
latest vis hot shows deep convection forming again and wrapping around the eyewall
latest vis shot shows deep convection forming again and wrapping around the eyewall
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