Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Rebelbase]

That's why they bury them above ground in NOLA!

[NautiNurse]

36 hours is usually sufficient for final storm preparations.

[SauronOfMordor]

I'm so worried about her because she doesn't like to get out -- got stuck in traffic for 16 hours last year and doesn't want to do it again.

16 hours in traffic beats 16 feet underwater

[numberonepal]

Your feeling may be correct. She's undergoing an EWRC (eye wall replacement cycle). All that dry air in the core will be expelled. The western outflow is starting up. This time tomorrow morning she's going to fill up the Gulf.

[Guenevere]

Thanks spectre's wife

!!....but I chose to live in Florida and have for 30 years....

...they say we're in the hurricane cycle..and should expect this kind of thing for the next few years...

...I had never experienced it before, but am seasoned now.----

I qualify that with we did ride out a category 1 called David when my son was a baby.---We spent the night bailing water from the living room that came through our bay windows---and the remainder of the night huddled in a hallway due to tornadoes..

I love Florida....the heat, bugs, humidity, sun......tropical breezes, mild winters, gorgeous sunsets :))

Our neighborhood sustained very little damage....however, a home across the lake from us is still being repaired and reroofed...(slow contractor, I guess)

...but driving back from Jacksonville (Frances)....and Orlando..(Jeanne)....

...we could see widespread damage, especially in parts of Orlando....and all along I-95 from Jacksonville, south.

My personal Tara rode it out very well.....therefore I tend towards staying put next time.

[dawn53]

Hey,

There are those mysterious blue lines again.

[LibSnubber]

"Last major Hurricane to make the hit on New Orleans was Betsy in 1965. Celebrated my 1st birthday with the roofing flying off at my grandparents house in a little town of Goodhope."

I was about 5 and living in Metairie when Betsy hit. Those memories will stay with me forever. We had to evacuate through a window (including my Grandma), go to a shelter, watched as our car, with my dad still in it, go onto two wheels as it almost got blown away, the darkness and sounds of glass breaking all over the school we were being sheltered in. To say that Betsy put us through hell is putting it mildly.

[NautiNurse]

There are those mysterious blue lines again.

The ink was clogged in the tube. They had to scribble to get it running again. ;o)

[4everontheRight]

My sister lost her husband of 25 years to Alzheimer's in July. She is all by herself now and so I think she is not thinking so clearly right now. She said she may come to see me in SC but she doesn't seem to be in too much of a hurry. She has to do everything to prepare on her own and she hasn't even started yet! I doubt she has eve put gas in her car.

[alancarp]

Here's Bastardi's (Accuweather) position forecast near landfall: 28.5N, 89.5W 915MB and 135 Kts -- a cat 5 level. That would bring this beast in between Gulfport and NOrl, which is wayyyy too close to call for a NOrl disaster (the worst being if Lake Ponch is breached and all that water pours into the city).

And here's the morning model runs from the S. Fla. water management district website. Now I gotta go mow the grass. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

[mewzilla]

Need the obligatory Bastardi pic :)

[Coldwater Creek]

Has anyone heard anything about the Mobile/Foley Alabama area yet? I am trying not to get to excited this time around. At first I thought that this area was going to miss the bullet, but since there will be a second landfall, things have changed.

[numberonepal]

With all this attention on NOLA, I hope the folks in Mobile are paying even closer attention. Mobile has seen her fair share of storms over the past few years, but that "nightmare scenario" for there has yet to materialize. In all those storms the eye either came right up the Bay or to the east. The result was the water being sucked out of the Bay. I've seen this effect first hand with Frederick ('79), and my Pops said it happened again with Ivan.

A Goula/Biloxi landfall will put the "dirty" part of the storm pumping water right up the Bay. A 30 ft surge in Mobile will not be pretty besides the fact that my parents and grandparents home would be completely under water. Bay Front Road and Downtown Mobile under 30 ft of water is a very disheartening thought.

[NautiNurse]

Oh my--this is a very difficult time for your sister. A visit to SC sounds like a wonderful idea.

[Ellesu]

Thanks for the ping.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/

scroll down for image.

[alancarp]

The GFDL model has it drilling directly at New Orleans at around 8-9am Monday morning. I think that prediction is for a 930 mb storm.

[Coldwater Creek]

Would you be able to go and get her? She may just not know where to start.

[alancarp]

Yep - that graphic directly agrees with the GFDL data.

[NautiNurse]

Agree--and all of the N GOM storms have been ultimately tracking a bit east of the early predictions. The extraordinary lead time required for N.O. evac can only result in inaccurate predictions. Then there are always the disaster wishcasters...don't get me started on that one.

[chemicalman]

History buff?

Here's a wonderful history lesson of a previous hurricane that hit in the direction this one is taking...and they claimed it to be a Cat 3 on todays scale.

Frenier, La.