Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[silentknight]

Forecast Damage Report by State for AAL122005

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL122005_staterep.html

[Termite_Commander]

Rang, you've got to keep the pictures smaller so that computers on dial-up won't explode. =/

[mwp99]

Biloxi, MS, near the Treasure Chest Casino.

[NautiNurse]

Awesome Visible Sat

[Aquamarine]

VIS LOOP

[janetjanet998]

i think its forming a HUGE eye..like 30-35 miles wide!!!

[Ellesu]

Camille pics

http://www.maritimemuseum.org/camille/


http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

[Termite_Commander]

Well, I think the hurricane hunters reported an eye about 40 miles in diameter, with a poorly formed west side. Or at least, I believe it was the west.

[mwp99]

Anybody seen any early storm surge projections?

[Types_with_Fist]

His gut feeling is that this one will be coming in a little West of Houma.

Yikes! My hometown. Between there and, say Morgan City? If the worst of it goes up the Atchafalaya, instead of directly at New Orleans, the surg might be absorbed better. But the storm is so big. I wonder if that really spares New Orleans the worst?

[Termite_Commander]

No, but I'll go look around for some. I think that a Cat 4 usually has between 16-21 feet of surge, though.

[NautiNurse]

I always get chills seeing those old Camille pics. They tell the story in a big way. Thanks for digging them up.

[dawn53]

I haven't been watching the TV reports, but somebody on an earlier thread brought this up and I was just wondering if anybody was commenting on it.

There looks like there is some weather moving into northern Lousiana and heading south. Has anybody commented on that, and would that have any effect on the track of the storm? In other words, if that weather moved south fast enough, could it deflect the path away from NO?

In this link you can see the weather forming over northern Louisiana toward the end of the loop.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Oh my Lord, what a huge storm. Words fail me. Whoever gets the brunt of this will be in a world of hurt. Prayers to all...

Glad to be here, wow, that is really scary looking, MOgirl

[silentknight]

Great image what is the base page for those?

[snowsislander]

I was just looking at the data archive at the NHC, and I thought this recent "Vortex" message was kind of interesting:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
  085 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2604 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 287 deg 083 kt
G. 207 deg 028 nm
H. EXTRAP  944 mb
I.  12 C/ 2745 m
J.  19 C/ 2746 m
K.  12 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2  nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01    OB 12
MAX FL WIND 101 KT E QUAD 21:38:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING

[NautiNurse]

Snowislander noted the weather dropping down into LA about an hour ago. Other than getting the ground wet in preparation for more torrential hurricane rains...let's ask the wx gurus.

[rang1995]

sorry ---i was amazed at the size,missed it really

[LA Woman3]

The traffic is a mess! It is always backed up on I-10 due to the ongoing construction between Bluebonnet and Seigen. I heard that Airline is just as bad, so I'm guessing everyone is trying that route.....

[juzcuz]

I wonder if that really spares New Orleans the worst?
-----

He said no... N.O. is going to get it Big Time... It will be on the East side of wall.

I'm scared cause I'm here in Hancock County we're in it's path aswell.