Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Dog Gone]

That's good to know. I knew size dimensions in a post helped the thread load faster while the images downloaded, but I thought they also reduced the file size. I might as well have posted it in more detail for all the help my efforts did.

Hmmm, that's more of a hassle than I realized. Gotta save the picture, reduce the resolution, upload it to a new host, and then link. No wonder I beat you to it. No telling how many computers I crashed.

;-)

[gueroloco]

Very well put! Prayers up for all the good people in N'awlins. I hope Nagin doesn't go on TV again imploring folks not to bring their big screen televisions to evacuation shelters. Remember when he did it last time? Unbelievable............

[NautiNurse]

LOL--I think you crashed the host site for that graphic. It's not loading anymore for me with broadband.

[STARWISE]

Oh .. just knew Homestead would be flooded. My kids went to the Montessori School all the way at the end of King's Highway .. and then to Redondo, so I know it like the back of my hand. I lived at the corner of Avocado and Redland in Redavo for about 9 years. Thank you SO much for that news. Just keep boiling your water ..and use bottled water for teeth brushing.

It's a blessing you have your power back and never lost it all that long. I still can't reach my friends in the Redlands out by Coconut Palm Dr. by cell or landline phone. The utility companies usually get out there last.

How's things with your trees and foliage?

It is something that the turn south wasn't picked up until very late .. that, and the lingering slow pace and rains made all the difference in the world for S. Dade. Just shows ya .. no one really knows with certainty what Mother Nature is gonna do except dear old Mother herself, and you've always got to be prepared for the worst.

By Homestead Reserve Base

Lincoln Rd., Miami Beach

Florida City

West Kendall

Plantation, FL

Kendall

Coral Gables

Country Walk

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Kendall Dr. was well on the way to eliminating all the wonderful farm fields and filling with developments all the way to Krome when I left .. has it gone all the way to Krome? Florida Hurricane Strikes since August 2004

[mhking]

I'm listening to HurricaneCity - Jim's still calling for an Alabama landfall -- as a CAT 4.

[tapatio]

I keep thinking about that New Orleans doomsday scenario and wondering if this is the bullet that finally hits the bullseye.

I had the same thought tonight.I pray that it isn't!

[Dog Gone]

I don't know what to tell you. Everything you said is true.

The odds of New Orleans being hit by THE STORM THAT DESTROYS NEW ORLEANS is very small as to any storm and as to any season.

Small hurricanes won't do it and fast moving Cat 3 storms won't do it.

The odds of it happening in the next few centuries must be close to 100%.

I dunno about Katrina. I'd guess the odds are about 10%, maybe a little less. We'll be more certain tomorrow.

[NautiNurse]

There is no place in the GOM--short of Mexico--that can absorb a Cat 4 storm.

[Dog Gone]

Even I can't see it anymore. I smashed it! Sorry world!

[Blennos]

We are outside of Baton Rouge. I grew up in Texas, so this is all new to me!

We are also living near Baton Rouge, Prairieville to be exact, and not far enough away the coast to feel much security. We moved down here last year from Virginia and were greeted by Ivan (which just missed) a few weeks after we got here. We are going to board up on Sunday unless the path shows that we are relatively in the clear.

[NautiNurse]

I'm using YOU as the bad example next time...

[abb]

You're spot on. There's no place from Key West to Brownsville that isn't crowded with condos and beach houses, save the marshes of South Louisiana.

Neal Franks used to preach about this years ago when he was NHC Director. If you build on the barrier islands, you will pay sooner or later.

[Dog Gone]

ROFL, I can't argue with that.

[nwctwx]

I think a cat3 would just about do it (not destroy, but cause massive damage) if it came into the city right.

[mhking]

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 15
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005

...Stubborn Katrina continues toward the west-southwest...expected
to become an intense hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Florida Bay and for
the Florida Keys from Key Largo southward and westward to Key West
including the Dry Tortugas.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the eye of Hurricane Katrina was located by
radar near latitude 24.6 north...longitude  83.6 west or about 460
miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 115
miles west of Key West Florida.

 
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. A gradual
turn to the west and west-northwest is expected on Saturday.

 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher
gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Katrina is expected to become a major hurricane during the
next day or two.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  25 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85
miles.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  965 mb...28.50 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
can be expected along the southwest coast of Florida in areas of
onshore flow east of Cape Sable... and in Florida Bay.  Storm surge
will gradually subside tonight and Saturday.

 
Katrina is expected to produce rainfall amounts of  5 to 10 inches
over northwestern Cuba and 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected
over the Yucatan Peninsula. Rainfall is expected to slowly diminish
across the lower Florida Keys...though additional 1 to 2 inches of
rain is possible in some of the heavier rain bands.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over the Florida Keys.

 
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...24.6 N... 83.6 W.  Movement
toward...west-southwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...105
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

 
Forecaster Avila

[NautiNurse]

That blasted thing is hanging me up now every time I refresh the page. GRRRRR!

[alancarp]

Latest forecasted tracks are worth looking at:

(1) Models all pointing to an area centered on Mississippi coast, with range being New Iberia, LA to Mobile, AL (see image below).
(2) Accuweather fears that Katrina could be a borderline Category FIVE storm at landfall. The name "Camille" came up.
(3) Hurricane center's intensity forecasts are nearly that high, and they agree with the above track forecasts. The NHC currently figures on a category 4 storm at landfall -- while acknowledging a model run that agrees with Accuweather.

[mhking]

Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 15

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005


the satellite presentation has continued to improve and consists of
a perfect a comma-shaped cloud pattern which begins over western
Cuba and wraps around a large cluster of very deep convection. This
band is probably producing near tropical storm force winds along
the north coast of western Cuba. Although the eye is not clearly
visible on IR images...radar data indicate that the eye is embedded
within this circular area of deep convection. T-numbers from SAB
and TAFB have increased to 5.0 on the Dvorak scale. Therefore...
the initial intensity has been adjusted to 90 knots. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to be in Katrina in the next few
hours. The hurricane is expected to be under a typical 200 mb
anticylone...with a cyclonic circulation extending upward to that
level. This is the typical pattern observed in intense hurricanes.
In addition...Katrina is forecast to move directly over the warm
loop current of the Gulf of Mexico...which is like adding high
octane fuel to the fire. Therefore...the official forecast brings
Katrina to 115 knots...or a category four on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. The GFDL is more aggressive and calls for 124
knots and 922 mb. The FSU superensemble is even more aggressive
bringing Katrina to 131 knots.


Katrina continues to move stubbornly toward the west-southwest or
250 degrees at 7 knots along the eastern side of a very strong
deep-layer mean high centered over Texas. In fact...data from the
NOAA jet just relayed by the meteorologist onboard indicate that
the high continues to be very strong. However...this feature is
expected to move westward and leave a weakness over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Katrina will likely take that opportunity and
begin to turn gradually toward the west-northwest and then
northward. The official forecast brings the core of the intense
hurricane over the north central Gulf of Mexico in 48 hours or so.
It is Worth noting that the guidance spread has decreased and most
of the reliable numerical model tracks are now clustered between
the eastern coast of Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi. This
clustering increases the confidence in the forecast.


Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 27/0300z 24.6n 83.6w 90 kt
12hr VT 27/1200z 24.6n 84.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 28/0000z 25.0n 86.0w 115 kt
36hr VT 28/1200z 26.0n 87.5w 115 kt
48hr VT 29/0000z 27.0n 89.0w 115 kt
72hr VT 30/0000z 30.5n 89.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 31/0000z 35.0n 87.5w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 01/0000z 40.5n 81.0w 25 kt...becoming extratropical

[silentknight]

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher
gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Katrina is expected to become a major hurricane during the
next day or two.

[Dog Gone]

I asked the mods to remove it.