Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[LA Woman3]

Didn't Nagin order a large number of body bags when they thought Ivan was headed their way?

[Dog Gone]

I was in Lafayette for Andrew which hit my house as a Cat 3, then spun off toward Baton Rouge.

You're not truly out of the danger zone there for any hurricane, but the danger is minimal. That city is probably a destination zone for New Orleans residents wise enough to leave.

[Flux Capacitor]

Landrieu's seat has never been safe. About the only way she can expect to win with more than 52-53% of the vote the next time around will be if her runoff opponent is David Duke himself.

(I probably shouldn't even kid about that....)

-Dan

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for checking in with us. Glad you have electricity again, and you are safe. After a storm like that, chainsaws are welcome music to the ears.

[ghostrider]

Look at the pressure charts. The hurricane will bounce off a high like a cue ball on a pool table, and the hurricane will suck into a low like a sliced golf ball to the ruff. There is a low moving in from the Midwest and a high holding over the Atlantic states. It the high stays in place the storm is heading to the central gulf coast. If the high collapses, the hurricane will turn north.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

If I were a betting woman (which I am not!), a boat vs. a Hurricane is kind of a no-brainer. But, I do know what you mean, some are pretty stubborn. Hope your family stays safe!

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[Flux Capacitor]

Nah, that was just for Mardi Gras week.

-Dan

[Tarheel]

What is that meter thingie on your post? A crapometer?

[nwctwx]

Meteorologist Dave Tolleris is currently speaking about Katrina:

FOR WINAMP USERS
BROADBAND: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
DIAL-UP: http://216.127.93.220:9032/listen.pls

FOR REALPLAYER USERS
BROADBAND: http://radio.nhcwx.com/9032.ram
DIAL-UP: http://radio.nhcwx.net/9032b.ram

FOR ITUNES USERS
BROADBAND: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls
DIAL-UP: http://216.127.93.220:9032/listen.pls

[trillabodilla]

Checking in from Louisiana.

We are outside of Baton Rouge as well. We will definately be keeping our eye on this one!

[dogbyte12]

The last hour it has been heading very south west looking at the radar loop. Which means not good news for us.

Waiting still for the next forecast models to go up. Going to weather proof tomorrow as much as I can. Going to be 100 with a 110 heat index though. Fun stuff.

[highimpact]

bookmark

[NautiNurse]

Your honest assessment of the situation is compelling. Those of us who have been threatened by the storms over and over know exactly what you mean. Keep your chin up. Let us know what you decide to do. You are in our thoughts and prayers.

[nwctwx]

Was just about to post that.

BTW: That's bigger than 50k ;-)

[Jrabbit]

What is that purple line on the bottom that goes....nowhere?

[Dog Gone]

I shrunk the size down, but the file size is still huge. I thought it would bring the file size down accordingly. Apparently it doesn't.

Or am I missing something?

[nwctwx]

That's the North American Model (NAM). It's a short range model that only runs to 84 hours. Most of the time, it's pretty clueless with tropical storms... maybe ok inside 36 hours.

It has been consistently allowing the storm to miss the troughiness to the north and has it meander west to the end of the period.

[nwctwx]

HTML tags only change the dimensions of the image. To change the size, you'd have to save it and lower the resolution. I managed to get it down to 50k, but you posted just before I had the chance to. =p

[ClearBlueSky]

It's not about playing the odds- because the odds of the 'perfect' storm coming the 'perfect' way at the 'perfect' strength are low, as any meterologist will tell you. So many factors have to be 'perfect' for the 'doomsday' scenario the press so wants for N.O.
It's about not being ABLE to spend nearly $1000 for a 5 day road trip, or not having a car that will make it as far as you might need to go to find accomodations. The feeling we get here in the N.O. area is that the 'valuable' can afford to evacuate several times a month, if necessary -and they will blithely take a 'mini vaction' whenever a storm nears. The rest of us are dispensable.
There could be every high school in cities like Alexandria, Monroe, and Shreveport open for evacuees. For that matter, small towns north of I-12 have buildings that could be opened to evacuees from the south- but they aren't! It's drive to find hotel rooms somewhere or stay and drown. Nice thing to contemplate on a summer weekend, isn't it?
Maybe the city's luck will run out one day, maybe it won't. Maybe it won't be in our lifetimes- which would surely disappoint the disaster junkies, wouldn't it?
But ANTICIPATING the destruction of a city, and the lives of the people in it, is ghoulish. Elsewhere in the country, people are looking forward to Fall. We dread August and September on the Gulf Coast( and especially here in N.O.) because it means death and destruction could threaten- literally, every week!
And so here we have Kritina. I pray to God that he keeps the storm weak and turns it to where it can do the least damage. He has answered our prayers so far- I believe He will now.