Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
That may be a left over plot from Irwin in the Pacific.
New Euro is inline with the GFS
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=47175
Pressure's down to 969...combine that with the warm waters, and this thing is gonna dive some more...
Sometimes these storms defy all the reasons of where they should go, like they got a will of their own.
Pacific storm?
It's eerie. They definitely do their own thing!
What's a link to that computer model website? Could you post that?
Thx, abb
It's time to pray for the Big Easy, this could be horrific.
All of the South, again.
FNC is still hammering the Florida panhandle and Florida west coast when every one else is looking further west. They need real forcasters instead of weather readers.
The light green line comes in through the garage and exits the house through our bedroom window.
They do say that a category 3 hitting at high tide will destroy New Orleans completely. It might be time for people to start preparing to get out of dodge on the Alabama Mississippi coast now. This will be a strong 3 or category 4. No sense in risking it.
That's probably the tropical storm in the East Pacific
FNC weather coverage is the worst in the business - all hype and no accuracy.
I got that model from HurricaneCity.com -- there is always a set of computer models at http://wunderground.com/tropical/ as well...
Found it!! Thx!!
Unfortunately all of the model maps on the web are flawed in one way or another, either missing many important models, or showing too many models (many of which are worthless) and not labeling them properly, or not updating fast enough.
I use Stormtrakker software to download the raw data and make my own plots, however it's unclear if I can legally post maps made with it so I no longer do on my personal site.
Anyway, ALL of the remotely useful computer models are now tightly clustered on a Louisiana/Mississippi landfall.
How far into Louisiana do the models go? I am about 55 miles WNW of New Orleans.
Subject to when the turn is actually made.
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