Posted on 08/25/2005 11:51:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Yeah! That jog SW last night was a big surprise for the forecasters. You never know with a hurricane.
She is BEAUTIFUL!!!! Thank you for sharing a picture with us!!
I agree that the SW jog last night was a surprise. Also, my nephew thinks tonights models will shift more west and he is pretty good with his assessments. He does not think it will go as far west as Texas but more west than the present models show.
The most reliable model (which is a an average of 4 models as I mentioned), the GUNA, now has a landfall in western Mississippi.
Often NHC forecast tracks are essentially the GUNA; however, they'll never shift a track that far west in one advisory; interesting to see how far they go; I think to the AL/FL border at 5PM and then further at 11PM.
Interesting observations. Thanks.
[g]
Been to Home Depot yet?
The 2:00 update hasn't come out yet - that's not a good sign...
Was thinking the exact same thing. Is recon in there now?
I just checked Weather Underground, and the Discussion isn't there yet either...
I think Texans might want to take a closer look at this thing.
...Katrina moving west-southwestward away from South Florida and the Florida Keys... ...Tropical storm-force conditions still occurring through much of the middle and lower Florida Keys...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Dry Tortugas northward... and along the Florida Gulf Coast from south of Florida City westward and northward to Longboat Key. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the Florida West Coast from north of Longboat Key to Anclote Key. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located near latitude 24.9 north... longitude 82.6 west or about 60 miles west-northwest of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. A gradual turn toward the west is expected to occur later tonight or Saturday.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph... with higher gusts. Katrina is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Katrina could become a category three or major hurricane on Saturday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles. During the past hour...a wind gust to 74 mph was reported at the international Airport in Key West Florida...a gust to 66 mph was reported at Dry Tortugas...and wind gusts to 40 mph and higher extend as far east as Marathon in the middle Florida Keys.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 969 mb...28.61 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... can be expected along the West Coast of Florida in areas of onshore flow south of Venice... and in Florida Bay. Storm surge should continue to decrease this morning along the East Coast of Florida.
Katrina is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 8 inches over the Florida Keys and 3 to 5 inches over northwestern Cuba. Isolated storm total amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible over the Florida Keys.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys.
Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...24.9 N... 82.6 W. Movement toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Oh my...hey--what is that stray blue plot line doing way outside the map?
I dunno...
WFLA AM radio in Tampa just reporting there was a tornado that touched down in Marathon in the early morning hours. Thinking of you down there, rodguy.
The A98E can be ignored at all times of course...
Anyway, new ECMWF is out, it clips the LA Delta and hits Mississippi.
All the global models worth anything are LA or MS now.
So far that is. Each advisory keeps shifting it further west, gonna keep a close eye on it for sure, looks like a nasty one.
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