Posted on 08/17/2005 11:10:59 AM PDT by rockthecasbah
World oil prices pushed up to $67 a barrel last week. Is it just a seasonal phenomenon, a reflection of summer driving patterns, a sign of Saudi intransigence, a conspiracy by the oil companies? Perhaps. But far more likely, it has something to do with Hubbert's Peak.
In 1956, Shell Oil geologist M. King Hubbert made a startling prediction. Judging from the rate new oil was being discovered, he calculated that American oil production would reach its peak in 1969.
The prediction received little attention. After all, people had been predicting that oil would eventually run out since Colonel Drake drilled the first well at Titusville in 1859. These pessimistic forecasts had always proved wrong.
But Hubbert had some logic on his side. A veteran prospector, King had noticed that - largely because of requirements by the Securities Exchange Commission - oil companies did not immediately add new discoveries to their official "reserves" as soon as they were found but parceled them out year by year. This created the illusion that new oil was continuously being found.
Are you or ever have you been a commodity trader, particularly vis a vis oil futures? Second question, are you receiveing compensation in any form from any such individuals?
Yearnin' for that dead cat bounce!
I forget which one whether it's ethyl or methyl but one will attack the rubber in your fuel lines. Also, alcohol has less thermal energy so you burn more.
Here in California, alomst every pump says it's possible that the gas you're buying may have alcohol in it.
I'm all for something that limits our dependence on foreign oil. Right after we use up the rest of the world's supply.
It's also being driven by the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, which means that even if there were no changes in supply or demand, it would cost more dollars to buy a barrel of oil today than it did five years ago.
There are additional deposits well to the north. Viable ones stretch clear on up to the Oregon border. There are even a few very, very old wells, on land, in San Mateo County - old wildcatter drilled ones from the 30s and 40s. There is yet oil to be discovered in California. Problem is, it's high gravity and high sulfur. Current price points, even as hysterical as some people are about them, are not, in inflation adjusted terms, at the point they were late 70s and early 80s (pre 1982). Plus, overhead costs are higher than back then. So unless one can sell for $80 / BBL, and be resonably confident the that price would hold for at least 5 or 10 years, no one would dare risk investment in oil in California (or most other places in the US, the only real exception being the Gulf of Mexico and a few lighter gravity fields on land).
One more time: You can't conserve your way into growth. You can be more efficient, which we are, significantly.
BUT more energy must be produced. Period. No matter what else happens.
There are tremendous reserves of oil. The US government has restricted access to unbelievable reserves of fossil fuels.
This is a man made problem which is found in the the supply/production end, NOT the consumption end.
It ain't nuclear physics folks.
Yup. And speaking of speculation, I speculate that there are speculators active on this very thread!
For many of us, the solution is simple. Drive less. Drive cars that get better mileage. Get out and walk or ride bikes.
Interestingly, there is an odd constructive interference between the Green ideologues, the Peak Oil / Dieoff Doomers and speculators. All of them help each others' agendas with their effusive and deep, constantly spewing rhetoric.
Here is a realistic article, from a year ago. Despite recent peak prices into the $60s, we might stabilize in the $40s for a few years.
http://www.oaoa.com/news/nw051404i.htm
Article from Odessa, Texas (not Odessa, Russia). From real oil patch folks.
No and no. I work in the upstream oil and gas industry (exloration) and this is a topic of ongoing interest to me as well as other FR members. I don't trade commodities and I don't hedge my production.
So, where are you receiving your compensation from? What were the last five movie titles you rented from Blockbuster? Were any of those returned late? Have you run any stop signs in the last thirty days? Jaywalked?
5.56mm
Don't take such offense. There are speculators using FR to help spike prices. Thanks for answering the questions.
"Interestingly, there is an odd constructive interference between the Green ideologues, the Peak Oil / Dieoff Doomers and speculators. All of them help each others' agendas with their effusive and deep, constantly spewing rhetoric."
I will defend the Peak Oil position.
I worked in the oil industry, late 60s/early 70s. The Hubbert ideas were common science, among petroleum engineers and geologists.
Probably same is true, today. "Original Oil in Place" is finite. The variables are finding it, and economics/technology/politics of producing it.
The Peak Oil science has nothing to do with Green ideologues, although they converge on the same implications, eg. fuel economy, alternatives, etc.
Must be methyl. They are already using fuel lines and seals that are designed to be resistant to ethanol. I also recall that in the 40s and 50s scientists conducting rocket experiments that used methyl as a fuel component ran into some similar problems.
Forgotten.
Wyatt's torch??
Check this out and get back to me:
http://www.dieoff.org
I don't follow you. You're saying that supply is the only relevant issue to the question of how high the price is?
That seems to go against basic economics. Basic economics says that supply AND demand determine price.
That might be a simple solution, and if the price continues to go up, it might be the only solution. On the other hand, it doesn't seem to be happening now. We've heard media reports that the record gas prices have not deterred people from driving. I drive to work, and every morning it seems like there are more people on the road. The fact that they continue to drive is another reason why the price continues to escalate.
If I could wear shorts to work, I might consider riding my bike to work, even though it's probably about 5 miles. I suspect that if the prices keep going up, the dress code is going to change. Looks like we may be morphing into China.
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