Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)

NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

[nwctwx]

On its current heading, a TX landfall would be likely.. The storm is supposed to begin bumping into the S. extent of the ridge to its north soon though, which would give it more of a westerly component. I noticed the last discussion and track seemed a little less influenced by the high though. At this point it's still far enough away that only a few degree difference in heading makes a huge difference for landfall. The further north it gets before making more of a western move, the better shot it has at hitting TX. If it only clips the Yucatan, I think that's a good sign that she is going to end up being further north than most prior predictions.

If the eye misses, and stays over water, weakening will be minimal. That said, I think it will be tough for her to completely miss.

[RGVTx]

Yep, FR rocks!
Local news on now...

[sfimom]

WEt tobacco has been reccomended.....also toothpaste works great especially if you have the kind with baking soda in it.

[nwctwx]

Interesting story about the fish, I suppose it makes sense that they would try to stay out of the way of the worst weather. It's kind of like the stories of birds that get caught in the eye of the storm when it forms, then have to fly with it till it dissipates. Hopefully TX will get some rain, and little in the way of damaging water/wind.

[nwctwx]

Recent Cancun Radar:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/uploads/post-332-1121640506.jpg

[sfimom]

Lol after I joined in march I actually had my cable turned off.......no sense in it since all we ever used it for was the 'news'.

[CindyDawg]

I hardly ever watch tv anymore. I usually just turn it on after I see something on FR.

[CindyDawg]

I'm still learning to read these radars. Is it just clipping the tip?

[nwctwx]

The outer raindbands are just making their way onshore, the eye is still SE of Cozumel. Looks to me like the center will come in just south of, or over, the island. Then it should head up just NE of Tizimin on the radar by morning, before exiting back into the water.

Last few frames seem to indicate that she is finally deciding to regain some oomph, just before landfall. :<

[janetjanet998]

looks like she is completing an eye wall replacemnt...looks better on last few shots

[Dog Gone]

Wow, I'd call that irresponsible at best. Calling landfall on a north/south shoreline is close to impossible. Hurricane Charley wasn't all that long ago.

[nomorelurker]

I'm have a plan to hit Mustang Is. this weekend with a possible run to the N. Padre National Seashore if the rich offshore guy is not there for the offshore trip. Very serious ? what do think to plan on?

[janetjanet998]

charley come in at an oblique angle...the track only changed slighty but the angle at the direction it was going made a wide difference...this one is more perpendicular so a slight chnage will only mean a slight change in the path

[shield]

I have those little devils in my yard from time to time, and have been bitten. So I use clorox bleach on the bites...pain would stop immediately...when I'd take my daughter and her friends to the beach I'd always carry a bottle of clorox bleach with me. If the kids got bit by whatever, pour clorox on it...stinging would stop immediately.

[CindyDawg]

Well the report I pulled was Sat. RGV had a later update I think.

[No Blue States]

Rubber boots work well for me to avoid fire ant bites in wet conditions, pants tucked inside of course.
I hate them. If I see one of the floating balls I hope to have a can of hair spray and a Bic lighter handy.

[CindyDawg]

Why is such an early warning for the residents needed? I would think after the tourist gone there wouldn't be that many to get out.

[Dog Gone]

I agree, the forecast path is more perpendicular tonight before it hits the Yucatan and before a building high to its northwest should shield Texas.

A couple of major assumptions about how the storm will behave in that statement.

South Texas is only one wrong assumption from being the bullseye.

Not saying it's going to happen. It probably won't. But to give the all clear signal to Texas while it's still on the Caribbean side of the Yucatan seems reckless to me.

[shield]

Wonder why NHC's projected track is so much further south than weather underground? NHC came out at 4PM CDT, the other is the one you posted.

[Pebcak]

I agree. Last night I stared at all the steering currents and tried to understand where they were coming from. See 257 this thread.

What they were going on seemed so iffy, I couldn't imagine them giving the all clear to South Texas. This could be a major storm. People need time to prepare to stay or evacuate.

The other thing that had me wondering was different sites were showing different things. Very, very strange.

Valley guys, get busy and stay safe. We'll be thinking of you all.