[nwctwx]

On its current heading, a TX landfall would be likely.. The storm is supposed to begin bumping into the S. extent of the ridge to its north soon though, which would give it more of a westerly component. I noticed the last discussion and track seemed a little less influenced by the high though. At this point it's still far enough away that only a few degree difference in heading makes a huge difference for landfall. The further north it gets before making more of a western move, the better shot it has at hitting TX. If it only clips the Yucatan, I think that's a good sign that she is going to end up being further north than most prior predictions.

If the eye misses, and stays over water, weakening will be minimal. That said, I think it will be tough for her to completely miss.

[Arizona Carolyn]

Weather channel just said it's going to hit in a couple of hours and the eye is aimed at Cozumel and Cancun.

For purely selfish reasons I'd like to see it go more South and perhaps get picked up in the moisture flow coming into the SouthWestern states.. We REALLY need rain.

Will it peter out in the Mountains of Mexico or is there a chance some of this momentum could make it into the Gulf of California???? I know more questions than answers.