Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
eventually yes we may....but we will see....
crap according to the below it hasn't weakened....son of a....
Wow, that's getting out the 11 am advisory pretty quick!
satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Emily has weakened slightly over the past 12 hr. The eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery and the overall cloud pattern has become a little ragged. The aircraft indicates the central pressure has risen to 946 mb...with maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 142 kt in the northeastern quadrant. The initial intensity will be 130 kt.
The initial motion remains 290/17. There is little change to either the forecast philosophy or forecast track. Emily remains on the south side of an east-west low/mid level ridge extending from the Atlantic across the northern Gulf Coast to Texas. Large-scale models forecast the ridge to generally persist...with a weakness perhaps developing in 36-48 hr over the western Gulf Coast as a mid-latitude shortwave trough passes to the north. Track model guidance is in good agreement on a general west-northwest motion for 36-48 hr...followed by a gradual turn toward the west as the weakness in the ridge fills. Whether the weakness will be strong enough to allow a more northward track than currently forecast is questionable. However...the track after 36 hr is along the northern side of the guidance envelope.
It is unclear whether the weakening that has occurred is due to an internal cycle or external forcing. A recent SSM/I overpass does not show concentric eyewalls...and while cirrus outflow has diminished over the southern semicircle there are no obvious signs of shear at this time. Emily continues to generate cold convective tops...so there is still potential for re-intensification or fluctuations before landfall in Yucatan. Emily should weaken over Yucatan... then re-intensify into a major hurricane over the western Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone should then weaken quickly after landfall in northeastern Mexico and dissipate by 120 hr over the mountains of northern Mexico.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/1500z 18.6n 83.6w 130 kt 12hr VT 18/0000z 19.5n 85.9w 130 kt 24hr VT 18/1200z 20.9n 88.9w 110 kt...inland 36hr VT 19/0000z 22.2n 91.6w 85 kt...over water 48hr VT 19/1200z 23.1n 94.2w 100 kt 72hr VT 20/1200z 24.5n 99.0w 75 kt...inland 96hr VT 21/1200z 24.5n 104.0w 20 kt...inland dissipating 120hr VT 22/1200z...dissipated
Good morning, and thanks for the interesting links. Not certain how to read them, though. Is the green area the ridge that is supposed to develop westward towards Texas? Looking at their current map (from the time they made the projections) http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_f000_usbg.gif suggests that it is already in (at least a weaker edge portion) that ridge. So their projection of it continuing back into central Mexico is really based on an area of lower pressure forming in Mexico and connecting with a similar area that is over central Texas, which then closes or move south out of Texas? Or am I way off in interpreting those maps?
Whether the weakness will be strong enough to allow a more northward track than currently forecast is questionable.
This SST is two days old even so I see as it goes past the yuk pen it will be in warmer waters thus an increase.
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag142.html
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The black one is heading towards San Diego!
Looks like the famed ridge is doing its work already... if this track continues today, it's almost certain TX is going to be safe.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
If you go to that link, and cycle through the -3 hour, + 3 hour, you can see the ridge building west. Steering currents that were favorable for a S. TX landfall now steer into N. MX.
Cozumel appears to be in a precarious position.
Yeah, they will probably see at least the outer fringe of the northern eyeall. Should be going downhill there soon.
According to my calculations (a straight piece of paper against my screen during the goes floater loop) Cozumel might get a direct hit if the path stays the same.
I hope a wobble spares them.
"According to my calculations (a straight piece of paper against my screen...)"
How many people here are guilty of this?!?!
Me but I check my calculations against TWC:') It looks like Brownsville might dodge the bullet but I'm already feeling the effects. I was cleaning up and sorting valuables and dropped a picture frame and cut my foot and leg:'(
How many people here are guilty of this?!?!
Raising hand. :)
It will be interesting to see how the Yucatan crossing affects Emilys strength and direction.
I hope you foot is ok!
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