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Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)
NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions



Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop


The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Speed Barometric
Pressure
Storm Surge Damage Potential
1
(weak)
75 - 95 mph
65 - 82 kts
33 - 42 m/s
> 28.94 in. Hg
> 980.0 mb
> 97.7 kPa
4.0 - 5.0 ft.
1.2 - 1.5 m
minimal damage to vegetation
2
(moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
43 - 49 m/s
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg
965.1 - 979.7 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
6.0 - 8.0 ft.
1.8 - 2.4 m
moderate damage to houses
3
(strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 113 kts
50 - 58 m/s
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg
945.1 - 964.8 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
9.0 - 12.0 ft.
2.7 - 3.7 m
extensive damage to small buildings
4
(very strong)
131 - 155 mph
114 - 135 kts
59 - 69 m/s
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg
920.1 - 944.8 mb
91.7 - 94.2 kPa
13.0 - 18.0 ft.
3.9 - 5.5 m
extreme structural damage
5
(devastating)
> 155 mph
> 135 kts
> 70 m/s
< 27.17 in Hg
< 920.1 mb
< 91.7 kPa
> 18.0 ft
> 5.5 m
catastrophic building failures possible


Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I


TOPICS: Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; tropical; weather
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To: Diddle E. Squat

261 posted on 07/17/2005 5:22:01 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: Diddle E. Squat

It appears that Texas is pretty safe.


262 posted on 07/17/2005 5:32:37 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz

I hope so, but last I heard the final landfall still depends on whether or not the ridge over the Gulf extends itself and builds further west to protect Texas. Odds on a Houston hit seem pretty low, but for Brownsville, or maybe Corpus Christi, could be another story. Waiting for one of the weather experts to chime in about the ridge. Is that what turned it back to the left overnight? Everybody is still sleeping over at the weather forums!


263 posted on 07/17/2005 5:40:42 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: All

Only cat 3 now

057
URNT12 KNHC 171220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/12:01:00Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
082 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2622 m
D. 100 kt
E. 121 deg 004 nm
F. 203 deg 119 kt
G. 126 deg 007 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3036 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 1105A EMILY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 119 KT SE QUAD 11:59:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 126 / 7NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION OF EYEWALL


264 posted on 07/17/2005 5:41:49 AM PDT by neutrality
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Mexico Orders Massive Evacuation of Coast
265 posted on 07/17/2005 5:50:48 AM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
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To: neutrality

yeah even though they say the eyewall is well defined it looks like it collapsed completely on satellite....


266 posted on 07/17/2005 5:54:24 AM PDT by MikefromOhio
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To: Diddle E. Squat

It seems our weather experts over here are sleeping in as well :)


267 posted on 07/17/2005 5:55:37 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Pebcak; RGVTx

Morning. Got back about 1am. I'm not sure whether to start boarding up or not. TWC just barely has us in the cone now. We are on the rainy side but she's a tight storm.


268 posted on 07/17/2005 6:35:28 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: MikeinIraq

"it looks like it collapsed completely on satellite...."

Check this loop out Mike. Click on the left top sat image.
Looks like she is just waking up.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html


269 posted on 07/17/2005 6:37:10 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: No Blue States

Yeah but it isn't the clear strong eye that was so prevalent yesterday.

It DOES appear to be regaining again. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see this thing hit CAT 5 today (again)


270 posted on 07/17/2005 6:40:20 AM PDT by MikefromOhio
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To: MikeinIraq

Check out this geos loop. The eye appears fairly well defined.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


271 posted on 07/17/2005 6:49:57 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo

but no where near like yesterday...

When the eye became really small about 4 shots into the loop, that is when SOMETHING happened...

I believe it has weakened....


272 posted on 07/17/2005 6:54:16 AM PDT by MikefromOhio
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To: MikeinIraq

The NHC said it was going through an eyewall replacement last night. The pressure is dropping again now down to 938mb so it looks like the weakening was temporary.


273 posted on 07/17/2005 6:58:13 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: Diddle E. Squat
Good morning. Here are a couple of images for tomorrow through Wednesday.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

274 posted on 07/17/2005 6:59:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Gabz
Water temps in western GOM are warmer than where it is now.


275 posted on 07/17/2005 7:01:11 AM PDT by jslade ("If at first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried."(Seminole Cty, FL))
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To: dc-zoo

yeah it does...

unfortunately....


276 posted on 07/17/2005 7:14:50 AM PDT by MikefromOhio
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To: jslade

YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!


277 posted on 07/17/2005 7:19:04 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: MikeinIraq

Steve Lions just said the pressure is rising again so that may be good news and your hunch could be right.


278 posted on 07/17/2005 7:35:01 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: MikeinIraq

With daytime heating we will see an eye like yeserday imo.


279 posted on 07/17/2005 7:35:03 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: neutrality
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 27

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 17, 2005


...Category four Hurricane Emily moving away from the Cayman
Islands...new Hurricane Warning for Mexico...

 
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Warning westward along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
to Campeche.  A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Yucatan
Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward
and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas
mujeres.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme
western Cuba.

 
At 11 am EDT...the government of the Cayman Islands has cancelled
the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman island.

 
Interests in the southern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 18.6 north...longitude  83.6 west or about  165
miles... 265 km...west-southwest of Grand Cayman and about  250
miles... 405 km...east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  On
the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected to reach the
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Monday morning.

 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  This makes Emily a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common in
major hurricanes...but little overall change in strength is
expected before Emily makes landfall.  Weakening is then expected
as the center of Emily crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is  946 mb...27.94 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.  Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous
waves...are possible along the south coasts of the Cayman Islands.

 
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. 
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba. 
While some outer rain bands may continue to affect the Cayman
Islands...in general rainfall should decrease across those islands
today.

 
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...18.6 N... 83.6 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 946 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

 

 
$$


280 posted on 07/17/2005 7:35:48 AM PDT by neutrality
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