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Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)
NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions



Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop


The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Speed Barometric
Pressure
Storm Surge Damage Potential
1
(weak)
75 - 95 mph
65 - 82 kts
33 - 42 m/s
> 28.94 in. Hg
> 980.0 mb
> 97.7 kPa
4.0 - 5.0 ft.
1.2 - 1.5 m
minimal damage to vegetation
2
(moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
43 - 49 m/s
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg
965.1 - 979.7 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
6.0 - 8.0 ft.
1.8 - 2.4 m
moderate damage to houses
3
(strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 113 kts
50 - 58 m/s
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg
945.1 - 964.8 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
9.0 - 12.0 ft.
2.7 - 3.7 m
extensive damage to small buildings
4
(very strong)
131 - 155 mph
114 - 135 kts
59 - 69 m/s
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg
920.1 - 944.8 mb
91.7 - 94.2 kPa
13.0 - 18.0 ft.
3.9 - 5.5 m
extreme structural damage
5
(devastating)
> 155 mph
> 135 kts
> 70 m/s
< 27.17 in Hg
< 920.1 mb
< 91.7 kPa
> 18.0 ft
> 5.5 m
catastrophic building failures possible


Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I


TOPICS: Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; tropical; weather
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To: NautiNurse

I'm sitting in Galveston with my fingers crossed.


21 posted on 07/16/2005 2:00:35 PM PDT by Michael Goldsberry (an enemy of islam -- Joe Boucher; Leapfrog; Dr.Zoidberg; Lazamataz; ...)
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To: nwctwx

Unfortunately last recon left at 2 Eastern, next isn't untill 8PM; they're reluctant to upgrade to 5 without direct measurement.


22 posted on 07/16/2005 2:00:56 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: dawn53

Thanks for those sites!


23 posted on 07/16/2005 2:01:18 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: nwctwx

Wow. Just Wow.


24 posted on 07/16/2005 2:01:35 PM PDT by sfimom ('Mommy why did they kill her cause she couldn't talk?' (my daughter age8))
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks for the thread. My very favorite niece just moved to Houston. I sent her an e-mail today to pay attention to flooding.

I think I will keep an eye on Emily, just in case.

25 posted on 07/16/2005 2:02:20 PM PDT by Miss Marple (Karl Rove is Plame-proof.)
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To: Strategerist

Makes sense, cat 5s are still quite rare. If she's one now, she should hold till later... eye still doesn't show much sign of ERC. Pressure is still also relatively high for a cat5.


26 posted on 07/16/2005 2:03:25 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: All

New TPC track is further south in Northern Mexico. Not completely sure why, I guess they are going with model consensus. But, the storm has come a fair way north today...


27 posted on 07/16/2005 2:04:20 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Here we go, TRMM just went over Emily again..

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/latest_small_auto_pr_slice.qt


28 posted on 07/16/2005 2:06:48 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

I just realized they have two GOES storm floaters trained on Miss Emily.


29 posted on 07/16/2005 2:08:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

I hope this isn't Gilbert pt II.


30 posted on 07/16/2005 2:08:31 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (Stop the Land Grabs - Markman, Taylor, Young, or Corrigan for SCOTUS)
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To: Miss Marple

Welcome aboard. I am much more comfortable knowing Florida isn't in the crosshairs of this one.


31 posted on 07/16/2005 2:09:03 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
I am much more comfortable knowing Florida isn't in the crosshairs of this one.

No doubt you are and deservedly so :)

32 posted on 07/16/2005 2:10:41 PM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) USSG Warning: Portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz

Posted: 2:00pm EDT Saturday July 16



Emily now has the strongest winds of any hurricane so early in the season, beating out last week's Hurricane Dennis for the top spot. Emily's central pressure measured 937 mb in the 1:17pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye penetration, and its maximum sustained winds reached 155 mph. Emily still has to get below Dennis' 930 mb pressure to qualify as the strongest hurricane ever so early in the year. The eye diameter shrank 2nm, to 11nm, and still has room to contract before an eyewall replacement cycle stops the current intensification trend. It is truly phenomenal to see such a powerful hurricane so early in the season.

Dr. Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


33 posted on 07/16/2005 2:12:28 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx
The only thing I fear is that Texans could get too complacent. I want this storm to be entirely Mexican, but Texans are putting all their faith in an invisible piece of air that does have a western edge.

If that western edge moves, so does the storm.

34 posted on 07/16/2005 2:13:45 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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bttt


35 posted on 07/16/2005 2:15:12 PM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Dog Gone

Well, yes... in an invisible piece of air that has not yet built west as well. ;-)

They keep mentioning the weakness on the left side of the ridge for a reason, they are not sure what to do... I guess they have to work with consensus. The shortwave should be on land late tomorrow, and we will have a better idea how fast it's moving, etc. Definately not time to look the other way if you are in S. TX.


36 posted on 07/16/2005 2:15:51 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Could you add me to this ping list please?

We're in the southern tip of Texas and need to keep a close eye on Miss 'Em.

Thanks for all you do.


37 posted on 07/16/2005 2:16:33 PM PDT by Pebcak
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To: Pebcak; Gabz; Howlin

Done!


38 posted on 07/16/2005 2:17:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Dog Gone

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

It's critical for TX that the ridge starts building in during the next 24-36 hours, current steering takes this into TX.


39 posted on 07/16/2005 2:20:29 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the pings.


40 posted on 07/16/2005 2:22:15 PM PDT by Jemian
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