Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)

NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop

The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
1 (weak)	75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s	> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa	4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m	minimal damage to vegetation
2 (moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s	28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa	6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m	moderate damage to houses
3 (strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s	27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa	9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m	extensive damage to small buildings
4 (very strong)	131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s	27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa	13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m	extreme structural damage
5 (devastating)	> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s	< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa	> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m	catastrophic building failures possible

Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I

Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop

[Michael Goldsberry]

I'm sitting in Galveston with my fingers crossed.

[Strategerist]

Unfortunately last recon left at 2 Eastern, next isn't untill 8PM; they're reluctant to upgrade to 5 without direct measurement.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks for those sites!

[sfimom]

Wow. Just Wow.

[Miss Marple]

Thanks for the thread. My very favorite niece just moved to Houston. I sent her an e-mail today to pay attention to flooding.

I think I will keep an eye on Emily, just in case.

[nwctwx]

Makes sense, cat 5s are still quite rare. If she's one now, she should hold till later... eye still doesn't show much sign of ERC. Pressure is still also relatively high for a cat5.

[nwctwx]

New TPC track is further south in Northern Mexico. Not completely sure why, I guess they are going with model consensus. But, the storm has come a fair way north today...

[nwctwx]

Here we go, TRMM just went over Emily again..

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/latest_small_auto_pr_slice.qt

[NautiNurse]

I just realized they have two GOES storm floaters trained on Miss Emily.

[Dan from Michigan]

I hope this isn't Gilbert pt II.

[NautiNurse]

Welcome aboard. I am much more comfortable knowing Florida isn't in the crosshairs of this one.

[Gabz]

I am much more comfortable knowing Florida isn't in the crosshairs of this one.

No doubt you are and deservedly so :)

[nwctwx]

Posted: 2:00pm EDT Saturday July 16

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Emily now has the strongest winds of any hurricane so early in the season, beating out last week's Hurricane Dennis for the top spot. Emily's central pressure measured 937 mb in the 1:17pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye penetration, and its maximum sustained winds reached 155 mph. Emily still has to get below Dennis' 930 mb pressure to qualify as the strongest hurricane ever so early in the year. The eye diameter shrank 2nm, to 11nm, and still has room to contract before an eyewall replacement cycle stops the current intensification trend. It is truly phenomenal to see such a powerful hurricane so early in the season.

Dr. Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Dog Gone]

The only thing I fear is that Texans could get too complacent. I want this storm to be entirely Mexican, but Texans are putting all their faith in an invisible piece of air that does have a western edge.

If that western edge moves, so does the storm.

[shield]

bttt

[nwctwx]

Well, yes... in an invisible piece of air that has not yet built west as well. ;-)

They keep mentioning the weakness on the left side of the ridge for a reason, they are not sure what to do... I guess they have to work with consensus. The shortwave should be on land late tomorrow, and we will have a better idea how fast it's moving, etc. Definately not time to look the other way if you are in S. TX.

[Pebcak]

Could you add me to this ping list please?

We're in the southern tip of Texas and need to keep a close eye on Miss 'Em.

Thanks for all you do.

[NautiNurse]

Done!

[nwctwx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

It's critical for TX that the ridge starts building in during the next 24-36 hours, current steering takes this into TX.

[Jemian]

Thanks for the pings.