Posted on 07/07/2005 7:34:14 PM PDT by texasleslie
(Philadelphia, PA ) The announcement of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor’s intentions to step down from the High Bench has sent shock waves of speculation throughout the Capitol.
The notice of Justice O’Connor’s resignation upon the confirmation of her replacement by the Senate came as a relative surprise to lawmakers. Chief Justice William Renquist’s battle with thyroid cancer had most believing that he, rather than O’Connor, would be the first to step down. The already ideologically polarized Senate has been preparing for years for the politically bloody battle to come involving three Senate nomination processes go two for O’Connor and Renquist’s seats on the Court, and the third for the seat of Chief Justice nominated from the existing members of the Court. No matter what the order or timing of these expected Court vacancies occurs, the political battle could be one of the most tumultuous in recent American history.
As the political battle looms on the horizon, Senators and pundits have turned to speculation over who President Bush will nominate for these key seats. And speculation is all it is. On March 22, 2001, the Bush Administration announced it would no longer submit the names of candidates to the Federal Bench to the American Bar Association for their review prior to nomination. So nobody, except the innermost circles in the White House, knows who the next Supreme Court Justice will be.
However, it is possible to narrow the selections down a degree and determine, if not a name, some of their general characteristics.
The first few are the most obvious. First, Bush will nominate a fellow conservative to the Bench. The second, the nominee will be young, probably in their early fifties, ensuring that Bush will leave a lasting impact on the composition of the Court. And the third, Bush will seek to demonstrate the inclusiveness of the Republican Party by either continuing the tradition started by Ronald Reagan and nominating another conservative woman to the Bench, or selecting the first ever Hispanic-American to sit on the Court.
The final characteristics of Bush’s nominee will be determined by political strategy and the degree of willingness Bush has to engage the Democratic leadership of the Senate in a possible filibuster fight.
The first possibility is the Consensus Candidate. Bush may nominate a well - known judge from one of the Federal Circuit Courts with a moderately pro-choice judicial history. This would allow the President to avoid the immediate political showdown in the short term, show a willingness to work with the Senate, and save his political capital for the battle over Chief Justice and the second nominee.
The second is the Dark Horse. Bush could select a candidate in the vein of Miguel Estrada. A person with strong conservative credentials, but not much of track record to be held against him by Senate Democrats. This candidate would be more controversial, but would probably win nomination because many Democrats would not support a filibuster of the Dark Horse for the same reasons Bush may select the Consensus Candidate.
The third is the Wild Card. This would be a nominee such as former Senator Orin Hatch. Someone outside the traditional court system who, like the Dark Horse, does not have a long track history of judicial decisions but has the added benefit of having a higher degree of familiarity with the Senate. By making a Wild Card selection, Bush could possibly get a more conservative Justice on the Court more easily, but runs the risk of having a nominee’s political record drawn into the judicial debate with destructive results.
The forth is the War Horse. This is the nuclear option. Bush selects an arch conservative to sit on the Court and prepares for a showdown on the Senate floor to break the almost certain Democratic filibuster of this candidate. This approach would enable Bush to have the maximum impact on the Court in the shortest amount of time; however, it may also backfire on him. If Senate support is not strong enough to override the Democrats’ filibuster, the failure could end up making Bush a de facto lame duck President, effectively ending his agenda on the Hill months before the 2006 Election.
While the identity of the next Supreme Court nominee is anyone’s guess, it is certain the Supreme Court will be the center of political theater for months to come.
© 2005 Justin Darr
Copyright 2005 (c) by The American Eagle News and Economic Report. All rights reserved. Permission for can be obtained by written consent. Must include all credits to author and publication.
I don't know, however, I trust him to do the right thing.
If he is considering someone as far down the list as Hatch, then all I've got to say is "I am available."
I have a good feeling about his choice(s). Just a gut feeling at this point, but I don't think he's going to pass up the chance on tilting the court to the right for a good long time.
its going to be Roberts. He will shy away from Luttig because he is abrasive and could get defeated even with a vote and go with Roberts who is just as conservative yet stands a higher chance of getting confirmed. However, if Rehnquist does in fact resign, he will nominate Scalia to chief, Gonzalez to fill O'Connors seat and Roberts to fill Scalias associate seat
I had always heard that a former senator would receive less scrutiny than the typical nominee (being a former crony and all)...although yes, being a U.S. rep's father doesn't help...
The only one off the top of my head that comes to mind (former U.S. Senator nominated for federal judgeship) is James Buckley.
Also a former senator does not face the pay issue that a current senator does.
Garza
The third is the Wild Card. This would be a nominee such as former Senator Orin Hatch.
??????????
I was thinking he was still active...with a slow connection I was too lazy to check it...thanks...
Bush would be wise to save Roberts for the Ginsberg seat. Roberts cannot be stopped under any circumstances; he has the charm, the credentials, the temperment, the mind, the reputation, the respect, from all quarters. Use him for the seat which will cause the biggest ideological swing. Just a thought.
Afterwards, Gov. Rick Perry announces his intention to name himself to the Senate as Cornyn's replacement, abdicating the Governorship to Lt. Gov Dewhurst, thereby allowing Carolyn Keeton McClelland Strayhorn Rylander to win the GOP primary next spring.
How's that for dominoes falling?
Born 1949 in Philadelphia, PA
Federal Judicial Service:
U. S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit
Nominated by Ronald Reagan on February 27, 1985, to a new seat created by 98 Stat. 333; Confirmed by the Senate on April 3, 1985, and received commission on April 4, 1985.
Education:
Cornell University, B.A., 1971
University of Texas School of Law, J.D., 1974
Professional Career:
Private practice, Houston, Texas, 1974-1985
Race or Ethnicity: White
Gender: Female
...unless JRB, Owen, and Pryor served up as the bones thrown to those 'rabid religious, conservative dogs in the Bible belt' and the real Bush favorite(s) saved for the Supreme Court.
May God steer GWB to the former...for the sake of our nation.
I dare the Demorats to put up a stink against a Black woman. They know it would amount to political suicide.
Janice Rogers Brown should indeed be Bush's choice to replace O'Connor.
I don't know about that--they put up the hugest stink against Clarence Thomas, and it did't hurt them, eh?
I think Condi Rice might disagree with your opinion of the Democrat's assumed aversion to stank behavior.
..not to mention Justice Thomas.
I wish Bush would nominate Mark Levin. If his radio show is any indication, one of his opinions for the majority would read something like this:
"Nowhere in the Constitution did our Founding Fathers express a proclivity for a 'right' to that for which you have deigned to petition this august body. Now get out of my court, you big dope!"
Yeah, he'd be great!
I wish I could share your optimism. I think we will get Alberto Gonzalez, a selection I find repulsive
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