(SCOTUS) On Your Garza (Ginsburg Is Very Sick, May Retire After November)

The American Spectator ^ | 7/5/2005 | The Prowler

[GOPGuide]

[SNIP]

On Friday, with the announced retirement of Sandra Day O'Connor from the Supreme Court, It took a few minutes for the news to set in on Capitol Hill, among Republicans and Democrats alike. After all, even the White House in briefing Republican leadership on the Hill spoke in the belief that it would be Chief Justice William Rehnquist who is retiring.

"The White House seemed to be expecting Rehnquist first, that was what my boss was getting briefed on," says a staffer for a Senator sitting on the Judiciary Committee. "We were told Rehnquist in July, possibly later this year."

Rumors are already swirling about a possible third retirement after November. The most likely would be Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who according to former Supreme Court clerks may be in poorer health than Justice Rehnquist.

"That's the seat for [Albert] Gonzales, that third seat if it opens up," says Department of Justice staffer. "All of this depends on how the first nomination goes, but the assumption here is that this is not the time for Gonzales."

As of this writing federal Judge Emilio Garza is the frontrunner to replace O'Conner. There are several indicators, which may all be red herrings, but that is half the fun.

First, Texas Sen. John Cornyn met with the President, as well as Chief of Staff Andrew Card and several members of the White House Counsel office early Friday. Up on Capitol Hill, rumors were quickly swirling that Cornyn had been offered the Supreme Court nomination. Those rumors were fueled when his senior staff essentially went underground for several hours.

But later in the day, Cornyn was making television appearances to discuss the nominations process, as well as placing an op-ed about the process.

Cornyn is now believed to be the President's point person in the Senate to help measure the level of support for potential nominees. "He's the President's 'consultation' guy," says a Senate leadership source. "That's how we're proceeding. If he is the nominee, we will be surprised again. But that's nothing new with this White House."

Cornyn and Garza know each other from their days in Texas and other legal circles.

Another indicator of Garza's status is that several senior Republican staffers on the Judiciary Committee have begun poring over court rulings from the period of 1987 through 1990, a period when Garza served as a U.S. district judge before his elevation to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

That research, though, could just as well apply to Judge Edith Hollan Jones, who has been sitting on the Fifth Circuit since 1985. Jones was considered for possible Supreme Court nominations by President George H.W. Bush.

[alessandrofiaschi]

How many? 4 of 3 (it's not a wrong math...)

[Jeff Chandler]

it may come as a suprise but we can lose seats in 2006. This is especially true if the war doesnt show improvement and the GOP gets bad press for overreaching on SCOTUS debate.

Is that you, Senator Lott?

[MinuteGal]

Ruth Buzzi Ginsburg will only leave the Court feet first. It's a certainty she will die with her white ruff and her ACLU boxer shorts on.

However, upon her shuffle off this mortal coil, watch for her vacancy to be declared a "Jewish seat"......and the voices of the liberal Jewish community will be an extra added attraction to the clamor.

Well, nowadays we have to have a Hispanic seat, a woman seat, a Jewish seat, a black seat........haven't heard about the idea of a Muslim seat yet, but it'll be broached in the not too distant future, that's fer sure.

Leni

[SierraWasp]

Yeah, well... I want him to appoint Zell Miller and give the libs apoplexy eternally! I want it!! I want it a lot!!!

I could just see ol T. Kennedy and ol hair tranplant pledgerizer puke face!!!

[Flux Capacitor]

----1. Dems have to defend more incumbents in 2006 than do Pubbies (i.e. the math says that we'll win),----

The "math" said the Dems would win in '02.

----2. Dems are behind in fundraising (i.e. the money says that we'll win),----

Right now, they are. We'll see where things are in a year and a half when the usual deep-pocketed billionaire Democrat suspects are taking serious interest.

----3. The Heartland is finishing up its historic realignment (no longer the Solid South for Demcorats; now the whole Heartland is Republican),----

The "Heartland" has been Republican for years, and yet we've still got to contend with Democratic senators from states like Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Ben Nelson has never won election by more than a couple of points but he just keeps on hanging in there.

----4. Republicans finally outnumber Dems in voter registrations,----

Registration numbers are just that -- numbers. Whether or not those people get out and VOTE, and vote the right way, is what matters. The Dems held the registration advantage for years but Nixon and Reagan still each won 49 states.

----5. The Dems have been distracted from their key Senate races (e.g. by attacking GWB, DeLay, filibustering, etc.),----

I doubt they have. Again, wait another year....

----6. The Trend. The GOP keeps winning and winning, gaining leads in state governorships, state legislatures, the House, etc...so continued gains in 2006 for our GOP dominated Senate fits in with the historical trend-line.----

The historical trend-line says that the president's party loses seats in the second-term off-year election. True, that didn't happen in '98, but so far that was merely an aberration. And as far as the recent trend of Republican gains goes.... all trends are broken eventually. 2006 may be the year, maybe it won't.

----Even Nixonian-resignation-level political blunders couldn't blow 2006 for the Pubbies in the Senate.----

Oh, you had better BELIEVE they could.

----GOP gains +3 Senate seats. You heard it here, first----

Hope you're right, chicken-counter. Bottom line: NOTHING is certain in electoral politics and it would be unwise to wait on a "more conservative" Senate that may not come. It's much too early to know what the last Senate Bush will have to deal with is going to be like, so he should assume this is the best he's going to have.

-Dan

[Lancey Howard]

Also Bush will be under pressure to leave at least one woman on SCOTUS since replacing Ginsburg with a man will leave a 9-0 man dominated court.... If Ginsburg goes look for Edith Jones and Janice Rogers Brown.

Excellent analysis! Bush is under less pressure to replace O'Connor with a woman due to the fact that Ginsburg is there. But make no mistake - - Bush will nominate at least one hispanic, and Gonzales is his man. (By the way, I find all this anti-Gonzales stuff from "conservative groups" amusing. I get the feeling it's all a ploy to thwart rat howls that Gonzales is a right-wing extremist.)

[SuziQ]

No freakin' way is that harridan retiring until she can be replaced by a lib. I don't buy it.

Well, if she's as sick as is indicated, she may not be the one making that decision.

[alessandrofiaschi]

Toc, toc! What about a white Christian conservative seat?

[dangus]

Umm, and let's not forget the 85-year-old John Paul Stevens. Does anybody really expect him to serve another four years?

Check out this anticipated lineup:

Clarence Thomas, originalist
Antonin Scalia, originalist
Bush appointee 1, originalist
Bush appointee 2, originalist
Bush appointee 3, conservative
Bush appointee 4, moderate
Anthony Kennedy, moderate-to-liberal
David Souter, liberal
Steven Breyer, liberal

Gone:
William Rehnquist, conservative
Sandra Day O'Connor, moderate-to-liberal
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, radical
John Paul Stevens, liberal

[Lancey Howard]

What happens if a SC justice gets incapacitated? Goes on a ventilator or something and cannot function? Is there a process for replacing that justice or do we have to wait for her/him to die? Thanks.

[RobbyS]

Be kind. She is an honest liberal and a personal friend of Scalia.

[dangus]

The American Spectator is not going to the float a trial balloon to help Bush get off easy!

[concerned about politics]

Well, nowadays we have to have a Hispanic seat, a woman seat, a Jewish seat, a black seat........haven't heard about the idea of a Muslim seat yet, but it'll be broached in the not too distant future, that's fer sure.

But put a moral and honest Christian on the bench??? Why, that's liberal blasphemy!!

[SierraWasp]

Oh! Ok!! So I'm clueless!!!

So clue me in to this mockery of justice by catering to the bastard that defiled the oval office and the Presidency of the United States.

This is gonna be interesting. I sit at you feet and listen, oh great political seer... Please advise. (in other words... do tell)

[Flux Capacitor]

----Umm, and let's not forget the 85-year-old John Paul Stevens. Does anybody really expect him to serve another four years?----

A lot of us didn't expect the old bastard to be here this long. I'm getting real tired waiting for that guy to drop....

-Dan

[alessandrofiaschi]

Stevens wrote the motivations of Kelo vs New London. That bastard is in good health.

[concerned about politics]

Yeah, well... I want him to appoint Zell Miller and give the libs apoplexy eternally! I want it!! I want it a lot!!! I could just see ol T. Kennedy and ol hair tranplant pledgerizer puke face!!!

Ted Kennedy's head would get so red it would literally explode!!!!

[alessandrofiaschi]

Have you read my post? We wrote the same things... ;-))

[streetpreacher]

LOL.

BTW, I would trade the Republican majority in the Senate for a Conservative majority on the Supreme Court.