Warmer Air May Cause Increased Antarctic Sea Ice Cover

American Geophysical Union ^ | 6/29/05 | Dylan C. Powell, Thorsten Markus, Achim Stössel

[beavus]

WASHINGTON - Predicted increases in precipitation due to warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic's Southern Ocean. This finding from a new study adds evidence of potential asymmetry between the two poles and may be an indication that climate change processes may have varying impacts on different areas of the globe.

"Most people have heard of climate change and how rising air temperatures are melting glaciers and sea ice in the Arctic," said Dylan C. Powell, lead author of the paper and a doctoral candidate at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. "However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon. Some of the melt in the Arctic may be balanced by increases in sea ice volume in the Antarctic."

For the first time, the authors of the paper, published this month in the Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), used satellite observations from NASA's Special Sensor Microwave/Imager to assess snow depth on sea ice and assimilated the satellite observations into their model to improve prediction of precipitation rates. By incorporating satellite observations into this new method, the researchers say they achieved more stable and realistic precipitation data, to counter the great variability in precipitation data sets typically found in the polar regions.

"On any given day, sea ice cover in the oceans of the polar regions is about the size of the U.S.," said Thorsten Markus, a co-author of the paper and a research scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "Far-flung locations like the Arctic and Antarctic actually impact our temperature and climate where we live and work on a daily basis."

According to Markus, the deep and bottom water masses of the oceans make contact with the atmosphere only at high latitudes, near the poles. Polar processes, such as sea ice formation, are driving a huge, global, ocean heat pump, called thermohaline (or saline) circulation. To a large extent, this heat pump impacts the climate at lower latitudes.

Typically, warming of the climate leads to increased melting rates of sea ice cover and also increased precipitation rates. With increased precipitation rates and consequently deeper snow, the snow load on the Antarctic sea ice becomes heavy enough that it suppresses the ice below sea level. This results in even more and even thicker sea ice when the snow refreezes as more ice.

The paper indicates that some climate processes appear to actually be counterintuitive. "We used computer-generated simulations to get this research result. I hope that in the future we'll be able to verify this result with real data through a long-term ice thickness measurement campaign," said Powell. "Our goal as scientists is to collect hard data to verify what the model is telling us. It will be critical to know for certain whether average sea ice thickness is indeed increasing in the Antarctic as our model indicates, and to determine what environmental factors are spurring this apparent phenomenon."

Achim Stössel of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas, the third co-author on this paper, advises that "while numerical models have improved considerably over the last two decades, seemingly minor processes like the snow-to-ice conversion still need to be better incorporated in models as they can have a significant impact on the results and therefore on climate predictions."

The study was funded by NASA.

[cake_crumb]

Um...it's WINTER in the Antarctic. Shouldn't we be seeing hysterical articls about how ALASKA IS MELTING, now that it's summer in Alaska?

[Onelifetogive]

However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon.

The correct headline would read:

Environment Not as Simple as Environmentalists

[atlanta67]

so which is it?

global warming causes melting and seal level increases or global warming causes MORE ice?

these socialist environmentalists cant even keep their story stright

[Shermy]

"Our goal as scientists is to collect hard data to verify what the model is telling us."

LOL! Naturally inventing the model first is handsome money sitting in an office.

"We used computer-generated simulations to get this research result."

Whatever.

[nuconvert]

" warmer air temperatures from greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase sea ice volume in the Antarctic's Southern Ocean."

LoL. They're covering all the bases!

[cake_crumb]

The headline should read BUSH'S TRASHING OF KYOTO HAS DOOMED THE EARTH TO BECOME A DESERT/WATERWORLD/FROZEN WASTELAND DUE TO THE GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY THE EEEEEEEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEEEEEL AMERICANS"

Then a body to the story wouldn't have been necessary.

[Onelifetogive]

EEEEEEEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEEEEEL

Wasn't he the guy that jumped stuff on his motorcycle?

[Shermy]

Context: Often reported is the the arctic ice thinning. But Antarctic ice is increasing. How does this comport with global warming? Not "intuitively" on a simple figuring. But the model, and the money, needs a finding of global warming, so they create a "model" showing one.

[cake_crumb]

"global warming causes melting and seal level increases or global warming causes MORE ice?"

Both, apparently. They have to do something. Every time some nasty scientist shoots a hole in their religion, they have to come up with something else to patch the hole with, just to keep it hovering above ground like a half-dead helium balloon.

[Shermy]

"Naturally inventing the model first is handsome way to make money sitting in an office."

edit.

[Leo Carpathian]

"However, findings from our simulations suggest a counterintuitive phenomenon. Some of the melt in the Arctic may be balanced by increases in sea ice volume in the Antarctic."

Maybe they are stooopid and have nothing better to do. Simulate this!

[BenLurkin]

bttt

[hsalaw]

"I hope that in the future we'll be able to verify this result with real data through a long-term ice thickness measurement campaign,"

Stooopid? Yes. "Real data" will take, what, a thousand years?

[olezip]

From hence forth you will see everything blamed on "global warming" greenhouse gases. Once you start illogic, anything can be said. ...more JUNK science IMHO.

[cake_crumb]

"Wasn't he the guy that jumped stuff on his motorcycle?"

Well, don't tell anyone, but he was only one of a HUGE cadre of EEEEEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEEEEEEL capitalista, bound and determined to choke Gaia's atmosphere with greenhouse gasses from the patented, EEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEEEEL internal combustion engine!

From thirty to twenty years ago, these dastardly creeps planned to turn Earth into a GIGANTIC SAHARA DESERT, so they could feed their inhuman LUST for ROLLER DERBY TOURNAMENTS!!

TEN years ago, these heirs to Snidely Whiplash changed their twisted minds! They chose to turn Earth instead into a Waterworld!!

Today their EEEEEEEEEEVEEEEEEEL cabal plans to turn global warming into global COOLING, bring on the next Ice Age in three months!!!

SEE?!? SEE what EEEEEEEVEEEEEEL criminals poor Gaia is up against?!?!?!?

Don't ya just wanna CRY in sympathy?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

ROFL!!!!

[Adiemus]

And the commie-quasi-scientist said to the other one, "The sky is falling? The sky is falling!"

And it's all Bush's fault!

[cake_crumb]

" 'Real data' will take, what, a thousand years?"

And don't forget, hundereds of BILLIONS of dollars.

These people aren't totally stupid. They have a better chance of using a disaster scenario to get multiple government grants to "study" the problem, giving not only themselves but their antecessors jobs for life. It' s a whole new industry, based upon the welfare donations of the accused nations, which naturally fork over all the bucks they demand just to prove our innocence.

Is China, the world's largest polluter, subect to the rules of Kyoto? No, it is not.

[TC Rider]

Oh NO! We're not doomed.

Not doomed!

NOT DOOMED!