1:00 a.m. Eastern
I have been planning for some time to write a column on the prospects of Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to be the Republican nominee in 2008 and the next president of the United States. Then my old magazine, National Review, scooped me with an excellent article by John J. Miller in its June 20 issue. Worse yet, Miller's article is far longer and more informative than any column could possibly be. But I'm going to write a column about Romney anyway, to offer a few of my own thoughts on this interesting and remarkable man.
Anybody who thinks Hillary Clinton isn't going to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2008 is sniffing glue. I have talked to a number of Democrats who doubt it, because they are uneasily aware of the large number of Hillary-haters around the country. But these Hillary-haters are almost exclusively Republicans and independents -- most Democrats positively adore her. All she needs to do (figuratively speaking) is send the delegates to the Democratic convention a short letter, on scented notepaper, saying "If you nominate me, I will accept," and the nomination will be hers.
What's more, she is going to be hard to defeat. She is well known to the entire American public. And while there are various blotches on her pre-2000 record -- such as the interesting story of how she converted a $1,000 investment in cattle futures into $100,000, allegedly just by reading the Wall Street Journal attentively -- the basic image of her as her husband's presidency ended was that of an often-betrayed but gamely loyal wife, standing by the man she loved.
She then won election to the Senate from New York -- a victory she is almost sure to repeat in 2006 -- and has built a new reputation as a hardworking member of that body. Moreover, she is retouching her image to appear reasonably moderate as Democrats go these days -- a positive hawk on the war, and more inclined toward a religious spirituality than anybody had suspected, let alone detected, in the past.
The Republican bench for 2008 is hardly empty, but has hitherto lacked any compelling personalities with the necessary conservative credentials. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., would certainly be an attractive candidate despite his age (he would be older than Reagan was when elected) but he has gone off the reservation on issues crucial to conservatives so often that most of them would be hard put to regard his election as a "victory." Rudy Giuliani has the same problem, plus a temperament that makes it hard to cast him as "mainstream."
Among the indisputable conservatives, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush may well be the most attractive, but he is indisputably a Bush, and the voters may deicide to let that family take a rest from public service for a while. Besides, he has firmly said he won't run. Senate majority leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., is a serious contender, but he comes over as a rather gentle soul, a tad too inoffensive to put in the ring with Hillary. He might overcome this reputation if he demonstrates a firm mastery of the Senate in judicial nomination battles still ahead, but that remains to be seen. Virginia Sen. George Allen has the same sort of reputation, with fewer means of reversing it.
There are still other Republican possibilities, but the one that stands out a mile is Mitt Romney. He made his initial reputation by taking over the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City when they were staggering under a bribery scandal and a $400 million debt and turning the event into an ethical and financial triumph. As governor of Massachusetts, he inherited a $3 billion deficit and balanced the state's budget without a tax hike. He is battling the state Supreme Court's ruling in favor of gay marriage by supporting both state and federal constitutional amendments barring them. His biggest problem is being a Mormon, which some members of more orthodox denominations consider not quite Christian enough; but his positions on most social issues are identical with those of the sturdiest evangelicals.
Above all, Romney comes over on television as a genial and thoroughly relaxed male, not in the least bothered by the prospect of taking on the Ice Queen. My guess is that she would look too eager and too imperious in the inevitable TV debates, and that Mitt Romney would have little trouble sending her home to Bill.