Posted on 05/14/2005 1:57:34 PM PDT by FairOpinion
WASHINGTON - Seven Republican senators will determine the outcome of a showdown this week between the president and Congress — and a minority within it — over who is going to shape the federal courts.
Barring any unforeseen developments, these are the lawmakers in the make-or-break position when it comes to deciding whether to allow a Senate minority to block a president's nominees for the federal bench.
The senators are Susan Collins of Maine, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, John Warner of Virginia, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and John Sununu of New Hampshire.
At issue is an effort by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist to ban judicial filibusters. The Senate's Democratic leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, wants the ability to block nominees for the Supreme Court and lower courts whom his party views as outside the legal mainstream.
The seven Republicans have not committed publicly to supporting either Senate leader.
All 44 Senate Democrats, joined by independent Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont and three Republicans, have said they oppose curtailing a Senate minority's ability to block the president's judicial nominees with just 41 votes in the 100-member Senate.
Frist, R-Tenn., has 45 of the Senate's 55 Republicans on his side.
During President Bush's first term, Democrats succeeding in blocking 10 of his judicial picks. Both Bush and First are making the case now that it should take only a simple majority — 51 votes, rather than 60 now — for a nominee to win confirmation for a lifetime appointment to a federal appeals court or the Supreme Court.
For Democrats to prevail, they need the support of three of the seven undecided Republicans. Frist needs five votes from five of those Republicans so Vice President Dick Cheney could have the chance to break a tie in favor of Bush's position.
Frist said Friday he will bring up the first of the blocked nominees — Texas judge Priscilla Owen and California judge Janice Rogers Brown — this week.
Some of the seven Republicans, including Collins, have made up their mind but are not saying how they will vote. Warner and others say they have yet to decide — and hope they will not have to.
"I'm always working on the issue," Warner said last week. "I'm hopeful the leaders can reach a compromise. I'm optimistic we can reach a compromise."
So far, only Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island have broken party ranks, expressing concern about a change that could permanently reduce minority rights in the Senate. Vote counters in each party say Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine also is likely to side with Democrats.
Democrats insist there are other Republicans who support the Democratic position but do not want to say so publicly. Republicans note that all the other GOP senators who started out publicly uncommitted — Thad Cochran of Mississippi, Ted Stevens of Alaska and Richard Lugar of Indiana, for example — now side with Frist.
Warner is the last of the powerful GOP "old bulls" in the Senate not to say he will join with Frist. Warner has said repeatedly that he worries that ending the judicial filibuster will weaken the Senate.
"I tend to be a traditionalist, and the right of unlimited debate has been a hallmark of the Senate since its inception," Warner said. "Without question, though, I am strongly opposed to the use of the filibuster to block judicial nominations."
Liberals and conservatives are focusing on Warner and other undecided Republicans through telephone calls, Internet campaigns and television advertisements.
Conservative groups such as Progress for America and Focus on the Family have spent millions of dollars on ads since mid-April in Alaska and elsewhere trying to persuade undecided Republican senators to support Frist.
Murkowski said those efforts have backfired with her.
"I was very offended at the tone," Murkowski said. "But they've continued, and it's been kind of interesting. I've probably gotten more positive feedback for my position, which Alaskans consider to be very thoughtful, very deliberate, about what is happening here in the Senate."
The liberal group People for the American Way says Murkowski is "the last defense against an attack on our Constitutional checks and balances."
"Alaska counts on Senator Murkowski to do the right thing. Now, the whole country is counting on her," according to an ad that the group plans to run this week. The $1 million television campaign also will mention Snowe and Collins in Maine and Specter in Pennsylvania.
DeWine sees power in not having committed to either side.
"I've decided. I just haven't announced it yet because I think that it's a good chance that we can get it worked out," DeWine said. "I'm hopeful that by not announcing it, I can help keep these negotiations going."
One option for the undecided senators could mean joining with Sen. Ben Nelson (news, bio, voting record), D-Neb. He is trying to convince 12 Republicans and Democrats that they should block Frist from banning judicial filibusters and also stop Reid from filibustering all of Bush's contentious nominees.
In the end, Murkowski said, the question has to be about the Senate, not politics, the president or the party.
"We have to remember that our decision has to be in the best interest of the institution as a whole," Murkowski said. "Not in the best interest of the Republicans, not in the best interest of the Democrats, but in the best interest of we as senators and the institution itself. I think that's what we should keep in mind."
Nelson might vote with the GOP if his vote is needed to make the rule change. If he doesn't he would have a hard time winning relection in a very red Nebraska. If Frist has the votes, than Nelson will likely vote no and then vote for all of Bush's judges on the floor.
IMO, people have these fixed perceptions of Spectre and Republicans in general that they cannot admit may be inaccurate at least insofar as current actions would define.
Spectre does not want to take this vote. No secret he wishes there were another option. It is predictable he'd support anyone tying another path that prevented him having to go on record with this vote. He is remembered for his vote on Bork. He did make comments following election that were incredibly petty and just plain stupid.
Since then what has Spectre done that is really so awful? McCain has stated he will vote against. Voinovich betrays his collegues without even giving them notice over Bolton. Hagel continues to hem and haw and play the second coming of John McCain.
What was Spectre done? Despite his distaste for this aspect of the job, he has brought these nominees one by one out of committee. He has controlled that committe in a way Lugar failed to do a couple of weeks ago. He has made a case that the filibuster is unprincipled more strongly than some that are fully onboard.
Spectre owes the President and, imo, of greater significance if the debt he owes Santorum. Maybe I'm too naive but I suspect Spectre is the type of man that pays his debts. Santorum helped him narrowly win that Penn primary. For santorum to stand a fighting chance, his promise that Spectre was essential to this specific fight needs to be proved true. To repay Santorum, Spectre needs to help him win re-election. That is dependant on this vote. I'm leaning towards Spectre being onboard because he will honor that debt.
Murkowski wants to be a Maverick loved by the MSM, but while I would keep an eye on her, I don't believe this is the battle she will try to make a name for herself on. She knows she barely won election thanks to Bush. Bush on the other hand handily won Alaska. Despite her comments, her constituents would not respect her voting no.
Instead of people whining and espousing the same tired rhetoric (not you) I'd much prefer to see everyone on this board spend their time productively in the weekend leading to the vote by contacting every Senator. Multiple times. Stop griping and take action.
Fact check-
The battle begins officially next week.
Frist is committed to up and down votes.
McConnell (who is NOT a liar) has stated he has the necessary votes.
This means the ONLY thing that can prevent victory is a Senator that has promised their vote changing their mind. The enemy is not Frist, Bush, etc. We know where they stand. It's a waste of time to attack those in our camp. Concentrate on those that may think they can survive the backlash of turning against the Party. make them aware they will NOT be forgiven a betrayal on this critical issue.
if it comes down to one vote, don't be surprised to see Ben Nelson D-NE vote with Bush. He might even switch parties over this issue.
you watch, the clintons will pull out their fbi files, and out of fear of being outed, one will turn coat.
good post. We really need to flood DC with emails and calls this week, especially to Snowe, Collins, Chafee, Warner, Specter, Hagel, McCain.
Specter...Specter...Sphincter...Specter...the name sounds familiar...
Could it be the same liberal Arlen Specter Dubya Bush campaigned for during a hotly contested senatorial race against conservative Pat Toomey who lost by a measley 1.5%?
Hmmmm....
I hear that, I just think in the long run, it concedes too much to the Senate. The Senate can make him think hard by rejecting the nominee. I don't want a minority of Senators standing in the way of the power granted to the President under the Constitution. If a minority of Senators has the power to block one or five or twenty nominees, then that same power can be used to impose a supermajority requirement on all of them, with the only balance being the political fallout.
I know this issue has been growing to a head for some years. Maybe a Constitutionally principled solution won't be accepted in practice. And I agree that saving face is a powerful motivator. But some of these folks are dug in real hard, and somebody is going to lose some amount of face, even if the "nuclear option" isn't triggered by an objection to vote on a nominee.
As for the vaunted minority voice, it can exercise itself in the field of legislation. That is the province of Congress. They can exercise in the entire field of Article I, and it is a big field indeed. "How much land does a man need," I ask, "How much land does a man need?"
However, I'm not speaking of a gentleman's agreement. I'm still talking about changing the rules, and doing so through the use of heavy artillery. I think you understand this.
There would be no way to block 1, 5, or 20 of the president's nominees indefinitely IF the president were really determined to see them through. In some ways, it would be a way for the president to save face if something embarrassing did come up.
Also, though, it would make end of presidential term nominations subject to the stall. Any rejections would have to take place prior to the end of approximately his 3rd year.
Sununu should not be on the list. He said on "Capital Gang" tonight that he wants up-or-down votes on judicial nominees. He will support the rules change.
But those other six are about as reliable as one-legged clothespins!
Don't you think that Ben Nelson would gamble on the point that the voters of NE cannot understand this issue -- too complicated for most people. Plus the GOP may be very unpopular in NE in 2006, like in 1974.
Yes and even if you see that a quorum is present, you have to account for every single Senator. Even if 99 are there, any Senator can ask for a quorum and even if a quorum is present you still have to go get the last one. Harry Reid can do it all day without even actually filibustering anything.
Murkowski was up for election in 04 against Tony Knowles. I believe and she did have a primary opponent.
Bush and Frist and Nelson's nominee can make it very clear to Nebraska if they want too. This will be a costly vote for Dems in red states if they vote against it because the conservative wrath will be high. If the GOP wins the vote, then Nelson will get a pass for voting with the Dems. This is why I wouldn't be surprised to see Nelson be the 50th vote if it came to it, ie he could lose his seat over this.
Just ask Tom Daschle.
her primary oponenet was a conservative State Senator, forget his name. But she was an incumbent so he had an uphill battle.
" The Democratic Senator that will break ranks is Lieberman."
The payback for that will be dropping Groton from the Base closure list!
The fact that these three may ulimately vote the "right way" after weeks of being wobbily and hestitating does not change the fact their indecision caused this obstruction to drag on in the first place, nor does it change the fact they may vote the "wrong way" in the near future over SCOTUS appointments and so on. Sununu's daddy, for instance, gave us Souter. We're STILL paying for that one.
>> Specter has done fine in his capacity as Judiciary Chair. He may stab the party in the back down the road -- but getting unconditional up-or-down votes for all nominees post-committee is imperative, and he seems to be (reluctantly) with us. Plus, he has made some good arguments on the Senate floor against Reid's insulting compromises, and has noted many of the Dems arguments refute each other. <<
Specter is back to his old Bork/Thomas mode where he gains conservatives trust by "fighting" for our side long enough to gain seniority and power, then stabbing the party in the back over the next battle. I have no doubt he'll "fight" for us too if they're an appointment to repalce Rehnquist with another conservative. Once some pro-abortion judge "retires" though, Snarlin' will come with some excuse like "this nominee is insenstive to civil rights" to BORK any pro-life nominee. Mark my words.
Specter HAD a great conservative primary opponent, but again, the "only RINOs can win" wing of the party ranted and raved that we HAD to vote for Specter or the "Democrats would control the Senate". Even going by their doomsday scenario where Toomey the Senate race to a Dem, the Senate would be in solid GOP hands today and the judiciary committee would be run by a great conservative Republican. Their scare tacits have proven to have NO basis in reality.
>> Murkowski got to her stature due to her APPOINTMENT by her governor father. It's not as if she ran in an open primary, she was the incumbant (albeit unelected). I don't thing GOP party mechanics can be blamed. <<
Murkowski HAD a conservative challenger in the primary but the "only RINOs can win" wing of party shoved her down our throat and INSISTED a less-qualified, less-reliable Republican appointed by daddy was the "only" candidate who could "win" (in Alaska where over 2/3rds of the state is rock-solid Republican for crying out loud?!) As it was she did a horrible job in the debates with Knowles and only squeaked through BECAUSE of the judge issue that she is now waiving on. We'd be MUCH better with an nominee who won his own right and didn't get the job due to daddy's intervention. America is not a monoracy but the RINO wing of the party insisted we rubber stamp the "heir apprent" to the seat.
>> Finally, the "real conservative" Sununu primaried in '02 supported Kerry for president in '04. I'd be curious to know if you were aware of that. <<
Sununu is a lukewarm conservative. The fact Bob Smith endorsed Kerry out of spite does not change the fact that Smith had a more conservative voting record that Palestiaian-sympatherizer Sununu. National Journey said he voted more conservative than Jesse Helms. And the fact the now RINO luvin' NH voted for Kerry (and well as a RAT for governor who was NOT endorsed by Smith!) says more about how they're getting more and more liberal in their voting habits precisely because of Sununu, not Smith. NH has voted further and further leftward ever since Sununu won that primary.
Chuck Hagel also had a MORE CONSERVATIVE primary opponent, but there was absolutely no reason not to select him, since Nebraska is one of the most ultra-Republican states in the coutnry where winning the primary is almost guranteed to result in winning the general election. But again the pro-RINO "wing" of the party promoted Hagel over Nebraska A.G. Don Stenberg. Hopefully that mistake will now be corrected if Sternberg is nominated to take out Ben Nelson, but the damage has already been done with Hagel.
John Warner was NOT the choice of party primary voters, he LOST to a MORE CONSERVATIVE candidate who unforunately died in a plane crash before the general election. Guess who the "powers that be" in the party tapped to replace him? Why, "moderate" John Warner the 2nd place finalist in the primary. Hmmm.
Susan Collins , another one of those "electable" moderates, finished a pathetic THIRD place in the 1994 general election for Governor. Naturally the RINO-luvin' wing of the party tapped her U.S. Senate for her "comeback" and promoted her as the "only woman" in a primary with two male conservative candidates.
Mike DeWine , George Voinvoich's little moderate mini-me, was also touted by the powers that be in heavily Republican Ohio, where Republicans hold about 90% of the statewide offices. Another candidate could have won, but the powers that be cleared the field for DeWine.
Let's face it, we're in this gridlock sitution where the Dems slap the majority party around because the "only RINOs can win" establishment wing of the party backed inferior candidates in Alaska, Ohio, Nebraska, Virgina, and other staunch conservative areas. More conservative candidates that would have represented the Republican rank-and-file better were rejected in favor of wishy-washy RINOs.
"Collins "believes that the filibuster has been overused but would like to see the situation resolved through negotiation rather than a rule change," her office said yesterday."
Then have her offer up the agreement. She knows the dems won't accept anything. She is an oportunist liar!
No, he most certainly did not. He frequently sided with the enviro-whackos. His endorsement of Kerry was what finally woke people up to the fact he was NOT committed to conservatism.
I contacted Mike Dewine a few weeks ago on this issue. I have an e-mail from him assuring us of his support for a simple 51 vote majority for judicial nominees.
I have no reason to believe he has changed his mind.
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