Posted on 04/08/2005 11:00:44 AM PDT by churchillbuff
In March, the U.S. economy created a paltry 111,000 private sector jobs, half the expected amount. Following a well-established pattern, U.S. job growth was concentrated in domestic services: waitresses and bartenders, construction, administrative and waste services, and health care and social assistance.
In the 21st century, the U.S. economy has ceased to create jobs in knowledge industries or information technology (IT). It has been a long time since any jobs were created in export and import-competitive sectors.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts no change in the new pattern of U.S. payroll job growth. Outsourcing and offshore production have reduced the need for American engineers, scientists, designers, accountants, stock analysts and other professional skills. A college degree is no longer a ticket to upward mobility for Americans.
Nandan Nilekani is CEO of Infosys, an Indian software development firm. In a Feb. 18 interview with New Scientist, he noted that outsourcing is causing American students to "stop studying technical subjects. They are already becoming wary of going into a field which will be 'Bangalored' tomorrow."
Bangalore is India's Silicon Valley. A 21st century creation of outsourcing, Bangalore is a new R&D home for Hewlett-Packard, GE, Google, Cisco, Intel, Sun Microsystems, Motorola and Microsoft. The New Scientist reports: "The concentration of high-tech companies in the city is unparalleled almost anywhere in the world. At last count, Bangalore had more than 150,000 software engineers."
Meanwhile, American software engineers go begging for employment, with several hundred thousand unemployed. I know engineers in their 30s with excellent experience who have been out of work since their jobs were outsourced four or five years ago. One is moving to Thailand to take a job in an outsourcing operation at $875 a month.
A country that permits its manufacturing and its technical and scientific professions to wither away is a country on a path to the Third World. The mark of a Third World country is a labor force employed in domestic services.
Many Americans and almost every economist and policymaker do not see the peril. They confuse outsourcing with free trade, and they have been taught that free trade is always beneficial.
Outsourcing is labor arbitrage. Cheaper foreign labor is being substituted for more expensive First World labor. Higher productivity no longer protects the wages and salaries of First World employees from cheap foreign labor. Political change in Asia has made it easy to move First World capital and technology to cheap labor, and the Internet has made it easy to move cheap labor to First World capital and technology. When working with First World capital and technology, foreign labor is just as productive -- and a lot cheaper.
This is a new development. It is not a development covered by the case for free trade.
Outsourcing's apologists claim that it will create new jobs for Americans, but there is no sign of these jobs in the payroll jobs data. Moreover, it doesn't require much thought to see that the same incentive to outsource would apply to any such new jobs. By definition, outsourcing is the substitution of foreign labor for domestic labor. It is impossible for a process that replaces domestic employees with foreigners to create jobs for domestic labor.
Now biotech and pharmaceutical jobs and innovation itself are being moved offshore. The Boston Globe reports that Indian chemists with Ph.D. degrees work for one-fifth the pay of U.S. chemists. American chemists cannot give up 80 percent of their pay to meet the competition and still pay their bills. Rising interest rates will make it difficult enough for Americans to make their mortgage payments, and the dollar's declining exchange value will raise the prices of the goods and services that have been moved offshore.
Americans are unaware of the difficult adjustments that are coming their way. By the time Americans catch on to outsourcing, its proponents will have changed its name to "strategic sourcing" or "partnering."
Corporations, economists and politician have written off American labor. No end of the job drought is in sight.
gas prices are hurting the economy right now
Ummnhhh..who cares about economists?
After you've read enough Walter Williams to figure him out (that's about 3 columns) you recognize that to a Williams, ALL is economics. Some would say that is myopic..
However, the Commission's work (available on the site in PDF) is concerned with National Security issues which arise from or through trade. Economics is a contributor to the overall report--but (thank God) it's not too important.
Of course, if you think economists are important, there's the fellow at the thread-head, Paul C. Roberts--and then there's Samuelson, who ALSO expressed doubts about MFN/China and the "free trade" religion.
I know EXACTLY what I said. My point was that for all the hullabaloo about "lifting up the Chinese peasant," there's less evidence for that than meets the eye.
In fact, it is population growth which is the principal driver of economic strength---particularly population growth in the "children" category.
The "Fizzle" of Japan's first cause is its demographics (there ain't no kids there to speak of...)--Gummint actions were secondary causes.
But Japan is not dead. It can live off USTreasury interest and principal for a LONG time.
Do you have to smoke crack to think that someone does not have to be searching for a job to be counted in unemployment?
Really? And just what is it today that we make, besides debt, that no one else makes? And while answering this question, do consider that states like Ohio have lost 200,000 jobs, so I hope your list has items that can suck up that slack.
The McDonalds has had a now hiring sign up for months. Then they also put a big banner on the roof. Now they have a large sign at the main entrance. They will hire anybody and everybody that has the energy to walk through the door.
No one seems to realize that demographic shifts can take powerful moves in less then 5 or 10 years. The Russians have raised their birthrates from 1.2 to 1.56 and rising with little government help while the Australians are having a baby boom after declaring having kids to be a patriotic duty and having the state begin large public programs for mothers. If you think the Japanese are just going to die out, you're wrong. By not allowing in "aliens" they are set to come back and still be Japan.
American software and intel is way ahead of anyone else, just as an example. We must be making something, because productivity keeps soaring, unlike productivity in those "dangerous" countries like China and India. In politics, "follow the money." In economics/business, "Follow the productivity."
We must be making something, because productivity keeps soaring, unlike productivity in those "dangerous" countries like China and India.
Here's a little hint on productivity gains: my last couple jobs were 50-60 hours a week and the pay was fro 40. Welcome to productivity gains of 25-50%. Plenty of companies do it, especially when the employee knows there are plenty of people to take their jobs.
In economics/business, "Follow the productivity."
Yeah, except when dealing with CEOs targetted with making the short term stock price go up. I cooped at Nortel in 99. When I started it had a great corp culture and people were happy to work there. Then the new management team came in, had conferences with everyone in the company (this is late Nov) and told everyone that they were starting a yearly 10% layoff policy. This was aimed at people who were making to much money (in otherwords who had been there to long) and they were still hiring plenty of college kids to replace the old timers (IBM's present strategy). Furthermore, they'd let everyone know (from worker to middle management) about terminations 1 week from Christmas.
Stock prices went up $2, productivity died. In one hour the culture went down the toilet. The rest of the month no one did any real work as everyone was paranoid and everyone was posting to monster, dice, etc.
Productivity vs money? No brainer, money.
Two words... Bartending Academy
That's funny!!
Follow the productivity.
...making the assumption that they actually have CHILDREN~!
And it's cute to watch those children attempt to reconstruct 'corporate memory' from zip, zero, nada personal knowledge or experience.
Think of it: these vaunted Corporations bought ignorance at 1/3rd the price!!!
Quotes by LS:
The Chinese are creating a lot of menial labor jobs that Americans don't want to do, so it still sounds like economic growth to me.(Thread 128)
And this fine dandy:
They are not taking high-wage jobs. They are not going to beat us by hurling plastic lawn chairs at us.
LS: I don't know if you are serious, or playing with us. Freeper Paul Ross said sometimes he wonders if the chinese don't have plants on sites to persuade people. I thought it was leaning to conspiracy theory but now I'm not sure.
What do you mean they are not taking high wage jobs? To prove my point I was in Staples this morning getting office supplies and just about all the copiers and computers were made in china. Those are not lawn chairs my friend. I discussed this with one of my machine shop clients this morning and he said just about all the hi-tech machine tools etc are now starting to be made in china and the chinese are buying machine tool companies throughout the world left and right. Cherry motors copied the GM car design almost down to the littlest detail and plans to start exporting 50K by year 2007.
There was a chart on this site that showed the US exports from 2000-2004. While total exports were up slightly from 2000 (thanks to agriculture and pharmecuticals) just about everything else was down including telecommunication, computers, hi-tech tooling etc. If it was not for ag and drugs and a few other categories we would have had a decline in exports.
When I brought up the point about wage disparity it meant that we cannot compete with 88 cent oper hour jobs. Even if we take out our enviro laws and other regulations we are at a loss.
China is buying many hi-tech weapons from russia(inlcuding 240 SU-30 fighters that are superior to out F-15's and F-16's) and once the EU droppes the arms embargo this summer watchout. They will have the same weapons as NATO. Beoing has a new plant in china that is making the tail section for one of the new airliners. Boeing gave china very sensitive jig information and composite technologies Boeing never would have given to one of their competition. BTW at last count china has 18 nukes pointed at the USA. This figure is old and probably very very low
John Chambers, the ceo of Cisco said their long term plans is in one word: China. They are shipping factories there and are building a state of the art R&D center. Also IBM just sold to china their personal pc business.
I you think we are only importing toys and clothing from china you are the one living in the '80's.
But the out going people are expected to train the incoming (be they new grads, Indians, Martians, etc). Of course those being cut have all the incentive to do their *best* and the incoming will just grab up 12 years of experience and knowledge in a week or so. But the bottom line looks nice.
The majority of semiconductors are now produced in China. Yup, nothing high tech there.
Well considering that China operates thousands of false business fronts in the U.S. with the sole objective to steal U.S. technology, gain political influence and spy on America, it is not a leap to suspect that China also has plants on political forums that specialize in disinformation and minimizing the China threat.
Given the insanity of what is happening in this country today you dont have to be conspiracy buff just to note the obvious.
I'm suspicious of any Freeper that continually touts proven falsehoods or goes to great lengths to defend the nefarious activities of a foreign country and their operations in the U.S. Its something that Patriotic Americans just dont do.
To be sure, some of these Free Trade/Open Border advocates have direct business interests at stake with the continuation of mass imports from China et al, Illegal Labor and the exporting of American industry. Good Citizens they are not.
Mighty fine post there superiorslots. You really cleared the air on just how successful China has been in moving up the industrial latter and gaining footholds into the most critical industries and technologies.
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