Posted on 02/21/2005 10:00:36 PM PST by neverdem
Washington
WASHINGTON isn't exactly short of foreign policy priorities these days, but before rushing into a list of new tasks for the president's second term, I would like to suggest sorting out an old one: Kosovo.
The world reacted in horror six years ago when the Serbian regime of Slobodan Milosevic embarked on an ethnic cleansing operation against Kosovo's Albanians, forcing 700,000 people, nearly half the population, to flee the province. Reports of massacres and images of mileslong lines of refugees fleeing into neighboring Albania and Macedonia compelled the world to act. The NATO air campaign against Serbia that followed convinced Belgrade to give up its brutal assault, and Kosovo was put under United Nations administration.
And so it remains to this day: an international protectorate, legally part of Serbia, but with a 90 percent ethnic Albanian population that would sooner go to war than submit to Belgrade's rule. Kosovars seek an independent state, and the seemingly endless delays over final-status talks are only causing deep frustration and resentment.
Their discontent is not simply a matter of hurt pride over national sovereignty; Kosovo's unsettled international status has serious repercussions for daily life. Because it is under United Nations administration, Kosovo is in economic limbo: it cannot be part of the international bank transfer system, it is ineligible for sovereign lending from development banks, and it can attract few foreign investors. With 70 percent unemployment, the province is being starved of the commerce it badly needs.
Perhaps most important, the continuing uncertainty creates widespread insecurity among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who live with a constant sense of dread that they could return to Serb rule. It is essentially a siege mentality, and it could explode into violence at any time.
This is what happened last March, when Albanians rioted, killing at least 20 and destroying hundreds of Serbian houses and churches. Of course, mounting frustration cannot excuse or justify such a rampage, but the events clearly demonstrated that United Nations administration is not working.
With spring approaching, a repeat performance looks increasingly likely. But this time it would probably be far worse: Kosovo's Serbs may well ask Belgrade to intervene to protect them, which could result in a return to open war in the Balkans. Under these circumstances, the United Nations mission would probably evacuate, leaving behind the remnants of the NATO-led military force and the Kosovo Police Service to maintain security. These forces are not up to the job, and the chaos would be horrible.
How can we avoid such a nightmare? The only solution that makes long-term sense is full independence for Kosovo, and the only question that remains is how to get there.
The best approach would be for Washington and its five partners in the so-called Contact Group - Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia - to initiate a process for a final settlement, or Kosovo Accord. (Something along these lines was proposed last month by the International Crisis Group, an independent conflict prevention organization.)
First the powers would have to establish a timeline and some ground rules. The goal would have to be independence for the entire province, and all other options - partition, or union with Albania or slivers of other neighboring states where ethnic Albanians live - would be off the table from the outset. Given the events of last March, the Kosovo Albanians would be informed that that the pace of their progress toward independence will be set by their treatment of Serbs and other minorities.
The drafting process could begin as soon as the United Nations completes its assessment of the Kosovo government this year. Then the Kosovars could start writing a constitution. The new state would have to agree to a few strong guarantees to protect the rights of its minorities - including the presence of international judges on its higher courts and a multinational monitoring presence. Eventually, an international conference and a referendum within Kosovo would add the final stamps of approval. If all goes well, this could be wrapped up by mid-2006.
Getting Security Council approval, or even unanimity within the Contact Group, for this approach could prove tough. Russia sees itself as a protector of Serbia, and could thwart the process. The United States should counter by bringing along as many countries in the European Union as are willing to join us in formally recognizing an independent Kosovo, and hope the Russians accede to the majority will.
It's understandable, considering the events of the last four years, that Kosovo has been left hanging. But the situation is simply too tense to wait around forever.
Frank C. Carlucci, secretary of defense from 1987 to 1989, is chairman emeritus of the Carlyle Group, an investment firm.
All lies.
Who finances the Carlyle group? Soros?
Where is the Clinton/Democrat exit strategy?
Clinton promised "one year" and out.
bttt
Here's a thread on the start of that little debacle in Kosovo.
RE: "Where is the Clinton/Democrat exit strategy?
Clinton promised "one year" and out."
Exit strategy, HA! Kosovo was another "Bite lip, act tough, get the photo op and forget about it" foreign policy blunder on behalf of the Klintoons, useful as a means of wagging the dog during his Senate trial in early '99 and meaning nothing more to him. Who cares if Clinton chose to bomb the hell out of a potential ally at the REQUEST of a Muslim seperatist organization that was on the state Dept. list of terrorist groups until early 1998 (and aggravate an already dreary situation by facillitating a reverse-ethnic cleansing against the Serbs in Kosovo)? Not BC, not so long as he could have a war to build up his shoddy legacy.
Kosovo-- the disaster that made antiwar activists out of even the most conservative of us, if only for a time.
Thanks for posting. But you forgot the hurl alert.
IIRC, I thought that was the promise for Bosnia. By the time Kosovo happened, I don't believe he made any promises. We were still in Bosnia. IIRC, we finally exited Bosnia a few months ago.
One of the few things that Kosovo did was confirm was that NATO was good for little more than peacekeeping after hostilities.
What are the lies? How is a former pubbie Secretary of Defense, chairman emeritus of the Carlyle Group, an investment firm specializing in the evil, capitalist, military-industrial complex,(/sarcasm) get on the take from Soros? All that I can read into this guest OpEd is that the ball needs to get rolling to a political settlement.
Wow! New York Times attention. Must be something big coming. Jomini! Please let us know!
Sorry MarMema, don't know why you weren't part of my ping list already but you are now.
IIRC, I thought that was the promise for Bosnia. By the time Kosovo happened, I don't believe he made any promises.
Mea culpa, I believe you are correct.
Who finances the Carlyle group? The Saudis and Bin Ladens among others.
The Carlyle Group has zero to do with Soros! Bin Laden money, yes - Soros - no.
Some Serbs are still alive and the Muslims do not whole the whole Kosovo yet? O horror, we need to renew the bombing! Put more sanctions on Belgrade, send more Serbian leaders to the Hague!
The only real solution would be to let the Serb authorities take back kosovo and administer law there with the international community providing monitoring. No doubt there would be unhappy Albanians but once the KLA thugs start to kill more UNMIK Police (sound familiar) as well as NATO soldiers, the Serb option will be the only route to take. The general Albanian population is as equally fearful of the KLA. I believe the Serbs who are under a new administration will be Kosovo's only option.
If Kosovo was to become an indipendantAlbanian state or become part of Albania what next? The end result will be a civil war spilling into a regional war involving Greece, Macedonia and Serbia not to mention the Russians will certainly be in the background providing support. This will happen folks. The best option is to let the Serbs back into Kosovo under UN monitoring. Better a small mess than a big one.
In this statement the former U.S. Secretary of Defense frames history in the exact mold as presented by the the US Defense and State Departments and the U.S. Media: That is, by extreme distortion, and by outright lies.
Of course, he knows more accurately what occurred: that a sovereign State was threatened with violence (Rambouillet), and that bombs were dropped in the middle of a major Capital (Belgrade) and other targets beforethe long refugee columns and rumors of massacres made excellent copy for the media= The "reports of massacres": Sec. Cohen's "600,000 boys and men, missing and feared dead." The desperate lies that were needed to bring on the other Nato signatories, so that the real violence could begin: the "humanitarian violence" against civilians of all ages, whether on simple little commuter trains (Grdilica), convalescent homes (Surdilica), or innocent ethnic Albanian refugees returning to their homes (Djakovica): All of this violence occurred because of the Rambouillet threat! An article such as Carlucci's is an attempt to create a climate; it seems in this case, an attempt to create markets--and World Bank debt, in the form of tiny statelets that will have to serve a master.
Splitting Kosovo would be akin to the Irish splitting Ireland into two. Yes, there would be peace and civility among the Serbian Kosovo. Within the "albanian" half, there would be lawlessness, illicit trafficking of who knows what, murder/mayhem. HOw do i know? Look at what is happening already!
In northern Kosovo where the Serbs were given back, very little crime/murder etc... in the shiptari controlled region, civil war lawlessness. Makes you wonder why there are ZERO KFOR/UNMIK patrolling Northern Kosovo? No need to restore order when people there respect authority and the convening administrative govt.
The non-KLA affiliated Albanians are quietly trading with the local Serbs. If you notice on the roads of Kosovo, trucks going back and forth to Novi Pazar via backroads, minus KFOR/UNMIK patrols etc...
Lastly, EVERY Albanian regardless of age, recieves from UNMIK about 7,000 Euros each year whereas the Serbs recieve zero.
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