Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
We actually already spread the avian strain that only impacts birds.
Here on DelMarVa poultry farms are immediately quarantined, no one on or off, and all birds are destroyed at the first sign of it.
It can be transfered from farm to farm on clothing, shoes, even vehicles.
My husband services the computers at several Perdue plants and his car is disinfected before he gets past a certain point both entering and leaving the grounds.
Again? Luckily I still have those 43 cases of spam left over from Y2K....
That is what made the Spanish flu different. It attacked mainly the healthy late teen early twenties. Wrecked havoc amongst the worlds military.
It is estimated the US lost about 675,000; total worldwide 20 to 40 million.
Source:
http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
Forgot to add to the above.
See my post #62. What do you mean we won't see it coming? They're telling us already. I worked in Seoul, Korea a few years ago. I love Korea, I love Seoul and I love the Korean people but things over there are not like the rest of the world...at least as we know it. And I'm sure they are horribly worse in China, Thailand and other Asian countries. At street level Seoul looks just about like any modern city. But when you go to the top of a 30 story building and can see what is going on from above, when you can see what is behind the walls and in the alleys, there is no doubt that it is a breeding ground for animal to human disease transmission.
Well...he's right ya know...
How do you know this? It seems to me that you would need to have be omniscient. Are you God?
and it would have happened so fast that nobody would even know what it was until after it was over.
You have this part nearly right, but you can't logically say that because it hasn't happened yet, it won't.
Human-to-human transmission of avian flu virus, if/when it occurs on a large scale, will be like all other virus spread. Coughing and sneezing puts aerosolized droplets in the air to be inhaled by people in the vicinity. Touching a contaminated surface, then your face, without disinfecting your hands first, will infect.
Some cases of human-to-human transmission have occurred in Asia, among close family members--brother to brother, daughter to mother, to aunt, if I recall what I read correctly.
So far, most people get it from infected birds, but the Avian flu virus can combine with other viruses--even other flu viruses when they both divide in the same cell and exchange DNA. This has almost surely occurred already, many times. Sometimes the resulting mutation is innocent, sometimes not. Eventually, a human-to-human virus will form that is easily contagious and quickly spread. This is where every flu virus that affects us comes from, and how it happens. It will be no different for Avian flu H5N1.
It's only a matter of time. Many millions of chickens in Asia have been destroyed in an effort to contain this deadly virus, but it has been around since 1997, and one of these years, maybe this one, it WILL spread.
It is his secret plan to solve the Social Security crises.Old people drawing S.S. will be hit the hardest[Sarcasm/off]
In short, it is present in virtually every Third World Society and it, along with other unsanitary practices should be the focus of First World attention. Unfortunately, the majority of such action is undertaken under the auspices of the UN and we know how miserably ineffective the UN is at anything save corruption.
bump for tuesday update
Thanks. I think it's time to start using those face masks when I leave the house......like Michael Jackson...he may of been on to something.
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