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World on verge of deadly pandemic, U.S. official says
Associated Press ^ | 2/20/05 | Associated Press

Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt

Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.

Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.

The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.

She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.

“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”

This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.

The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.

“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.

There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.

“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”

Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.

“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.

The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.

A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.

The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.

CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.

But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.

“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: birdflu; health; pandemic; run; turass
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To: abner

Wow! If you do get any information, please FReepmail me or ping me, I'd appreciate it.

I don't think Avian flu, or H5N1 is in the US at this point. I don't think it even transmits efficiently between people, although some (very few) cases have occurred in Viet Nam.


181 posted on 02/22/2005 6:32:15 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: Judith Anne

Will do. We just thought it was really bizarre for the story to come out that this kid died within hours of playing outside and then they said he died of the flu.


182 posted on 02/22/2005 6:34:47 PM PST by abner (Looking for a new tagline- Next outrage please!)
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To: Judith Anne
Here you go.
183 posted on 02/22/2005 6:38:20 PM PST by abner (Looking for a new tagline- Next outrage please!)
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To: virgil
Ebola has a high lethality but a medium/low transmission. Basically it burns itself out of the population by killing the hosts before widespread transmission. So, while scary and a killer it is not as bad as a killer influenza. As long as you don't have it of course.
Even with the flu vaccine how many people do you know get the flu every year? Have you had the flu? Now imagine a flu that you come down with in the morning and are dead by the night. Then imagine your children and neighbors too. High transmission and high lethality means this killer burns through the population faster than it burns itself out.
In 1918 it spread around the world. Now with air travel the flu in Hong Kong can be in Kansas in 24 hours. Now you know why Hong Kong killed millions of chickens and Vietnam is killing all its ducks right now. For the flu there is no third world countries.
184 posted on 02/22/2005 7:39:55 PM PST by IrishCatholic (No local communist or socialist party chapter? Join the Democrats, it's the same thing.)
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To: djf
...Don't need to capture them. Birds are highly migratory creatures. This could spread worldwide in six months, easy...

Beg to differ here...but there would have to be unprecedented numbers of of road-crossings for chickens and poultry to be considered "highly migratory."
185 posted on 02/22/2005 8:14:11 PM PST by avoCAdos
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To: bitt

Tis the season. Seams like another pandemic scare is broadcast around this time of year every year. It must be "financial grant renewal" month for all of the university labs out there that need some reason for living. Thanks for the warning now shut up. I'll make sure that I don't come down with cancer due to drinking 300 gallons of soda in one sitting. lol.


186 posted on 02/22/2005 8:23:36 PM PST by CONGHUNTER
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To: CONGHUNTER

Thanks for the warning now shut up?


187 posted on 02/22/2005 8:36:33 PM PST by bitt ("Conservatism is the dominant political creed in America,")
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To: abner

Thanks, sorry to get back to you so late. I couldn't read it because I didn't want to register...but I'm alarmed to hear about that case.

I've not heard of any ordinary flu killing anyone so quickly.


188 posted on 02/22/2005 10:31:17 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: abner

I apologize for getting back to you so late. I clicked on your link, but I don't want to register. But that is a really disturbing report, I don't remember hearing of any ordinary flu that could kill anyone that quickly...thank you for the information, I'm going to tuck it away, and if I hear of any other cases like that, I'll ping you.


189 posted on 02/22/2005 10:38:25 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: abner
I didn't register either but does this refer to the same cases?

There have been reports of two clusters of 3 deaths. One cluster was of 3 boys in Eastern Pennsylvania. All three died between February 7 and 15. One was a fifth grader (11M) in Bregy elementary school, another was a sixth grader (11M) at the Bala Cynwyd middle school, and the third was a freshman (15M) at the Nazareth Area high school. All three Eastern Pennsylvania students suddenly died after coming down with the flu.

190 posted on 02/22/2005 10:39:00 PM PST by steve86
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To: bitt

Don't worry about it; there are social misfits on every significant thread.


191 posted on 02/22/2005 10:40:45 PM PST by steve86
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To: BearWash; abner

Hi, I just got back from reading about H3N2 (California) flu and the same article you quoted from on CurEvents forum...very interesting, and I had the same question.


192 posted on 02/22/2005 10:59:44 PM PST by Judith Anne (Thank you St. Jude for favors granted.)
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To: MomwithHope

I believe you. Since I started taking garlic tabs, I haven't had more than a sniffle that went away the next day. It's probably one of the best kept secrets for staying healthy.


193 posted on 02/22/2005 11:40:57 PM PST by flashbunny (Every thought that enters my head requires its own vanity thread.)
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To: BearWash

:)


194 posted on 02/23/2005 4:38:57 AM PST by bitt ("Conservatism is the dominant political creed in America,")
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To: auggy
"Why then is it given priority over the other diseases?"

An outbreak of loud PCness in this country?

195 posted on 02/23/2005 5:21:12 AM PST by litehaus
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To: SwankyC
Could be appropriations time, too...

Forgive my ignorance but what does that mean?

Scary predictions as a way to get a bigger budget/subsidy.

196 posted on 02/23/2005 6:27:21 AM PST by Grut
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To: Cornpone

bump


197 posted on 02/23/2005 6:45:27 AM PST by Centurion2000 (Nations do not survive by setting examples for others. Nations survive by making examples of others)
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To: bitt

"Thanks for the warning now shut up" was to the author of the article not to you. Sorry for any misunderstanding.


198 posted on 02/24/2005 6:16:07 AM PST by CONGHUNTER
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To: CONGHUNTER

that's nice. now, head's up.


199 posted on 02/24/2005 3:33:42 PM PST by bitt ("Conservatism is the dominant political creed in America,")
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