Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
When their whole premise is based on weasel words, I just may not read the rest of the article.
How do we know that mankind has not interfered with nature?
This pandemic could be bioterrorism. Or it could be a genetically engineered strain that escaped from a lab.
Or it could be a test run for something even worse.
Microbiology is a hot item. And then there are all the dead scientists, dozens over the past few years, one as recent as early January 2005, who were top microbiologists. Most of them were either murdered or died an untimely death. hmmmmmmmmm
ping.
I wonder what all the dead microbiologists knew about this?
Does make you wonder.
BTTT!!!!!!!
No, but evidently you think you are.
The flu was created on the sixth day---evolution is a liberal myth.
You can't reply to substance so you resort to empty sarcasm, since nothing I said implies my own omniscience.
Your remark thus lacks sting.
I am suprised he gets away with it. But then again, I am not cetrtain if there is any regulations regarding this, or if Tyson's, who I am familiar with, are doing it on their own. The latter may be the case, as I am sure Tyson's is aware of the monetary fallout if some of their pork ever was contaminated.
My wife works for Cobb-Vantress, which was recently purchased by Tyson's, where she collects semen, and artificially inseminates chickens (discussing her job is a great icebreaker at parties). They have such stringent quatrantine procedures that she is required to shower when she arrives at work, then another shower whenever she goes from one chickenhouse to another.
"Funny story - about a year after he died my mom was sitting in the local Wendys with some of her bingo buddies. She heard the table of men next to them mention the name Eddie. They started talking about whatever happened to him and she could tell from the details they meant her husband. One of the men said - yeah I remember he always smelled of garlic. That's when she chimed in and said that was her husband and that he had passed away the year before."
Many moons ago I used to work as a teller at the Bank of Ravenswood on Lawrence Ave. I can still remember being able to "smell" certain customers as they came in...not because of uncleanliness, but because of the curry and garlic in their diets! You don't encounter that sort of thing much in the suburbs.
(Confidentially...I think maybe we BOTH ought to have stayed OFF this thread. They'll be coming for us, with the pitchforks and torches, ...SOON!)
I did not realize that the 1918 flu was so fulminant. I've heard people talk about how it killed so many, but not the details. It sounds more like ebola than flu. They don't seem too worried about this new avian flu for the US because we have a vaccination program (assuming they're able to make the vaccine properly this time), but the real concern is 3rd world countries.
There was a kid in Philadelphia that died of the flu last week. He was fine in the morning and dead in the afternoon. I have been looking for more information but so far haven't found any.
Forgive my ignorance but what does that mean?
Aids is the disease of an immoral lifestyle that only 10% or less of the population practice, yet it receives more attention, more money, more research than the top 2 killer diseases, cancer & heart disease, combined.
In Africa, it may well be the number one disease due to a few immoral Africans and a few million un-educated Africans.
In North America the death numbers from Aids has to be way down the list compared to Cancer and Heart Disease.
Why then is it given priority over the other diseases?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.