Boulder, Colorado anyone??? (Or perhaps some of you would prefer Las Vegas...)
Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
Oh, I forgot to add. Noone is panicking but the level of humor indicated people may be blase.
If there are cases in this country, I will tell you that I will stock up my house like prepping for a nuclear attack and I will plan to hunker down for three to six months. I am not kidding,,I would not leave and would open my mail with a respirator and gloves. And my grandchildren will lbe here with me. This is a bad bad disease.
You can stay healthy by just washing your hands after meeting liberals. Do not touch your face without clean hands. Liberals have cooties. Get a box of those surgical masks from the drug store if you must work with them. Maintain short hair and shower frequently.
Wow I never knew the 1918 flu was also an avian flu. Scary throught.
Boulder, Colorado anyone??? (Or perhaps some of you would prefer Las Vegas...)
Good point. With nutcases ruling China, North Korea, whose to say neither of them or some other dictator would not create it? You should read Mount Dragon. It is about a flu-based bio weapon.
That is my suspicion too. The man who warned the world about SARS when China was keeping it under wraps was arrested by the Chinese and we have not heard about him since.
An MSM source is pumping the potential pandemic quality of a crossover disease of some long recognized but not fully catalogued virus capable of mutation but already under surveillance.
Politics is the pivotal crux here; will the antagonistic government bodies cooperate to track this crossover potential or will enmity trump the common good.
An encitement to panic or to declare an unsupported crisis will hardly lead to the best course of containment or treatment and it is not in our better interest to light the lanterns and go running through the streets.
You know what...I believe him. (Though I did not know Serb's were into garlic.)
Garlic...it does more than keep away vampires...
A man can dispose of a woman very quickly by scratching himself, followed by using his belly as a drum and burping. It's idiot-proof and 100% effective. And it takes little energy.
I hope you are retired.
well, sitting as we are at our computers just talking is not exactly running thru the streets.
I do think when it comes right down to it, the right things will be done unlike the aids epidemic where everything wrong was done for political reasons.
AIDS was supposed to be a pandemic as well.
The AIDS Pandemic in the 21st Century
The AIDS pandemic in the 21 century continues to have devastating impacts on populations, particularly in the developing world. Since the beginning of the epidemic two decades (20 years) ago, more than 20 million people have died of AIDS.
That's a mere 1 million people per year worldwide. That's some pandemic. (it's a "donation money siphon" is what it is)
Contrast that with the 1918 Influenza Pandemic where an estimated 20-50 million people died around the world in a single year. Around 500,000 died in America. As of December 31, 2002, an estimated 501,669 people with AIDS in the United States had died. (1998–2002)
And this flu pandemic is a recurring theme...
HHS leadership directed CDC to develop options and recommendations for procurement and distribution of vaccine in the event of an influenza pandemic by September 2002
Preventing a Flu Pandemic/AIDS December 5, 2003
No need to go to other years, unless you really want me to. "Pandemic" is, IMO, being thrown around all too casually.
That's Mother Nature
The only thing that puzzles me about that statement is why is the panic reaction occurring just now? Did staffers just emerge from a deep sleep? This information has been freely available for the last 6 months to a year, with limited H5 info going back several years. The first known human-to-human transmission cases occurred at least several months ago. I have followed topical posts from forum to forum over the last year, depending where the activity was. All I can surmise is something new happened (not necessarily made public; possibly involving a human recombinant variant) or a "tipping point" was reached in epidemiological terms.
It is interesting to observe how the SARS outbreak a couple of years ago affected people's attitudes. There are those who have become complacent since the outbreak didn't reach the U.S. Their reaction at this point is one of ridicule and derisive "humor". Other people have become sensitized to the horrific possibilities of a viral pandemic and I would include myself among those. I sincerely feel that SARS was a warning of what is to come.
I am in the netherworld of being able to retire at a days notice so I can be free to go into seclusion. It is nice, to be able to leave any old time while still working.
I didn't realize about the cats..........
Ducks and geese I realize, but as they are not so commercially grown as chickens and turkeys, particularly in this region, I just tend to use the word poultry.
I guess my big thing is with the ease at which it can be transfered from flock to flock, it only stands to reason as the strains mutate it is only a matter of time.
I may joke about my 150,000 feathered neighbors, but I do not take any idea of avian influenza lightly.
I have no financial interest in the poultry industry, but after 20+ years of living in an area with more chickens than people, one learns to pay attention.
I belive you. I hope they are doing something. Studying it to produce a vaccine.
What was seeming to be new, this discusssion was several days ago, was the idea that early cases had been missed because of the multiorgan failure and overwhelming nature of the disease. That was what was wigging everyone out,,that they missed the beginning. And a hint that many cases had been missed. That is all I took from the conversation.
,,, what strategy does the UN have to save the planet - or did they fund the cause?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.