Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
Oh, great: another "scientist" is on the loose. Time to move to another planet, I guess.
I worry more about sooner than later, too.
Nemo was finally found right before the crabs hovering the sewer, finding him guilty, and about to lacesset him, by Ellen DeGeneres.
All is well.
ROFLMAO..............yup......without Kyoto all those greenhouse gases and CO2 are forming asteroids millions of miles away......damn that Bush......jeeze........
Hell, the core of the planet could vent enough gas one day to poison the atmosphere, the sun could go into a phase that destroys all life, or a black hole could swallow us up.
I had a fair day today, hope to had a better one tomorrow, but if it all ends tonight I will go gracefully. My only regret being that I did not learn how to be at peace with myself sooner.
I grew up fearing atomic bombs during the cold war. After that, nothing much bugs me anymore.
I grew up fearing atomic bombs during the cold war.
lol. I remember those days.. don't eat the yellow snow, it may be radioactive ,, uurrr, no wait a minute, that was something else.
Mark your calendars. Especially the Mayan ones.
Scared the crap out of everyone.
Fun days.........
Oh, this one wouldn't end life on earth or anything; wouldn't want to be within a hundred miles or so of the impact though......
Unsure of the tsunami size if it hit an ocean; 1,600 megatons is a lot less energy than the Chilean Earthquake of 1960 (largest quake known) at 11,000 megatons.
Now that you mention it, that asteroid diagram has some strange, metaphorical resemblance to Algore, although I'm not quite sure what it is.
I'll be 74 by then...still alive to experience the excitement (probably the only excitement I can get at that age)...but old enough to not give a s*#t whether I survive it or not!
Sell now!! don't wait to the last minute!!
GREAT book!
2029? That one will be making the rubble bounce on my headstone.
>>GREAT book!
Yes sir! I will always think of Lucifer's Hammer when I think of good sci-fi subject material. Larry Niven is at the top of my list. I just re-read "Inferno" last week, which is definitely a one of a kind book. I just wish Niven would pump out a few more! :)
Aye, we're doomed; doomed I tell you.
I thought I hallucinated this thread last night but here it is again.
I'd better move my car.
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